• 50 bps is reasonable, 75 bps is ok, I doubt 100 bps is called for
• Says he’s hopeful they can do 50 bps in Sept end then continue with 25 bps hikes until the beginning of Q2 2023
• There’s still a reasonable expectation that tightening into next year will lead to a restrictive setting but allow for reasonably strong labor market
• I see policy rate between 3.75-4.00% by the end of 2023
• It’s possible we get a soft landing but there are a lot of risks

So far we’ve had a statement and some fighter planes flying around. When does WW3 start?

The statement said the visit ‘severely impacts’ the China-US foundation and that it’s a ‘dangerous act of playing with fire’.

China has 3 aircraft carriers in operation:

• the newest and most advanced is the Fujian
• the Liaoning
• & the Shandong

Reports are that the Liaoning aircraft carrier left Qingdao on July 31. The Shandong left Sanya on August 01.

A reporter for Fox business with the info:

• A source with knowledge of the meeting between President Biden & Saudi King tells me Saudis will push OPEC+ to increase oil production at their meeting on Wednesday

The OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings are on 3 August 2022.