Thinking about probabilities is important –#AnirudhSethi

Data-Driven Decision Making: The Value of Probabilistic Thinking l NaveI think of trading as a game of probability, which has several advantages. You are getting more and more expert with your knowledge and experience, always bearing in mind that you will never be able to be always right.For example, a company’s stock is more likely to rise in price in the future (by attracting more investors, who will create more buying pressure) if the stock is at a new high (almost no oneis in loss on shares).if the stock has just broken out of a very long narrow range, if the company is profitable and growing, the growth is solid, the company is relatively undervalued on several valuation methods, the company has little debt, insightBuyers buy stocks… And even if a stock has all of these ingredients, we still can’t be 100% sure that it will rise in the future. Being More Realistic
Thinking about possibilities allows us to be less subject to the available inferential bias that sometimes causes us to place so much importance on a negative event that rarely happens in reality. например If one bad trade results in us never trading breakouts again, even though the probabilities were in our favor, then that’s what we’ll do. Don’t get too emotional
If you think in terms of probability, you will be less susceptible to losing trades. Your chances were good. One trade losing does not define your success rate. If you have an advantage, you will succeed thanks to the law of large numbers. You are also less affected by a good deal. You have an advantage. It is normal for you to win sometimes, it doesn’t have to make you feel cocky.Thinking in probabilities will help you stay away from violating your stop loss rule and becoming “married” to a stock until death do us part. If a trade becomes unfavorable and loses its edge, simply consider the long-term potential of the strategy and move on to the next trade. Focus on operation
Since the odds are stacked in your favor (assuming your strategy has an edge), you need to be more process oriented rather than results focused, allowing you to be less emotional and make better trading decisions. It is a great reduction of stress to use this technique.By thinking in probabilities, you realize that sometimes, a good trade can actually cost you money and sometimes, a bad trade can make you money. The danger of making money from a bad trade is that it can reinforce or create the wrong belief that will cost you more in the future.Because you know you have an advantage in the long run, you just stick with your strategy and don’t stick with it.deviate from it by all means, so that the law of large numbers will work. That’s how casinos make money. Do you want to be the casino or the sucker? When you truly believe that trading is nothing more than a probability game, concepts like “risk” and “reward” lose their meaning.

Do the things you don’t want to do! You don’t have to do them, but you should do them anyway. Do them now! – #AnirudhSethi

Dare To Be Different Images – Browse 2,247 Stock Photos, Vectors, and Video  | Adobe StockAre you currently struggling as a trader? Do you generally lose money despite having some good deals? Don’t worry. You’re not alone. you are actually the majority. It is a well-known fact that most traders lose money consistently in the markets. Trading does not escape the 20-80 Pareto principle.Just like in the start-up world, where nearly all start-ups fail.There’s a very simple rule you need to remember. If you want to get results that are different from the results of the majority, you must start doing what the majority does not. In any area where high performance is desired, the majority of people often make mistakes. Few would do different things. According to studies, only a very small number of people are inclined to do anything different.And the vast majority of people just keep on doing the same things, hitting the wall again and again. “Insanity: Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Expecting Different Results” – Albert Einstein

Doing things you don’t necessarily want to do

My own experience and much later We met with traders and identified five key questions that separate successful and unsuccessful traders.Now think about your trading and ask yourself the following questions:
– Do I take full responsibility for my results? Do I have a winning trading strategy? A backtested winning strategy or a strategy used by some of the few who actually make money consistently in the markets? Do I have written rules based on what I have observed in the past? – do I record every single trade I make?- Do I often do post analysis by looking back at past trades to see if I have made some mistakes? If you answered “no” to any of these questions, it is very likely that this is the reason why you are not making money in the market. Making any of the following sounds more emphatic can take time and can sometimes be seen as strenuous and burdensome.I can’t count the number of unsuccessful traders I know who are too lazy to come up with a well-defined strategy, write down their rules, and most importantly, do post-analysis. They often say that they do not have the time for that. We never have the time to do this. Successful people, just like everyone else, only have 24 hours in a day. They don’t have the time either.But they make the time for doing the things that need to be done in order to reach their goals. By saying I don’t have time, you’re basically saying, “I’m too lazy to do this. I would rather lose money than do what is necessary for me to succeed. You are acting like the majority by insisting that I have the time.And to have results that are different from the majority, you need to start doing things that the majority do not do. Then why are you not making any money?

US stocks close mixed with the Dow higher. The S&P and NASDAQ marginally lower.

The major stock indices are closing the day with mixed results:

  • Dow industrial average rose 76.63 points or 0.23% at 32803.48
  • S&P index fell -6.75 points at -0.16% at 4145.18
  • NASDAQ index fell -63.02 points at -0.50% at 12657.56
  • Russell 2000 gain 15.36 points or 0.81% at 1921.82

The NASDAQ index snapped a two day winning streak. Each of the indices fell 3 days and gain on two day’s to start the trading month.

For the week:

  • Dow industrial average fell -0.13%
  • S&P index rose 0.36%
  • NASDAQ index rose 2.15%

Looking at the Dow 30, the biggest gainers were:

  • J.P. Morgan, +3.03%
  • Chevron, +1.51%
  • Verizon, +1.17%
  • Visa, +1.08%
  • Caterpillar +0.95%

The biggest losers in the Dow included:

  • Disney -1.41%
  • Boeing -0.91%
  • Cisco -0.82%
  • Intel -0.76%
  • Salesforce -0.59%

Other big gainers today included a number of the meme stocks:

  • bed Bath and beyond +32.68%
  • beyond meat +21.89%
  • AMC +18.97%
  • Lyft +16.62%
  • Goodrx, +6.8%
  • Game Stop +4.17%

Some big losers today included:

  • Celsius, -9.03%
  • Tesla -6.63%
  • Western Digital -5.65%
  • Alibaba, -4.99%
  • Robin Hood -4.41%
  • Paramount global -4.15%
  • Moderna -3.78%
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