Apologies as there is a bit of a delay on the post due to technical difficulties. The German economy contracted more than expected in Q4 last year, owing to the spread of omicron and restrictions associated. The new year has started off with more resilience though, so there is at least some optimism on that front.
It was all about the dollar as the market continues to digest the post-Fed sentiment in trading yesterday.
Things are much more quiet so far today but we could see the action ramp up once European traders enter the fray later and as we get towards the Wall Street open. Equities were more subdued in a back and forth session (again). It has been a week with plenty of pushing and pulling but buyers are still hanging on despite the setbacks.
For now, US futures are slightly higher but that belies any major optimism on the week.
We’ll be getting some Q4 GDP releases in Europe later today but they shouldn’t mean much with the market being more forward-looking when it comes to pandemic and inflation dynamics.
As such, the market focus will continue to reside on dollar sentiment and the risk mood before the weekend comes along.
0630 GMT – France Q4 preliminary GDP figures
0700 GMT – Germany December import price index
0800 GMT – Spain Q4 preliminary GDP figures
0800 GMT – Switzerland January KOF leading indicator index
0900 GMT – Eurozone December M3 money supply data
0900 GMT – Germany Q4 preliminary GDP figures
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
MF article 4 policy proposal to Japan:
Senior IMF official:
Nothing of much insight from the IMF here. (more…)
We expect the situation in the energy markets to remain unchanged. Nevertheless, in this scenario, natural gas prices stay elevated for a longer period of time as the markets continue to be tight, at least until the spring of 2023. In the event of a harsh winter, either in Europe or in Asia or both, pressure would increase on the LNG markets. However, these extra price gains will probably disappear as soon as the cold period is over.2 is a de-escalation that leads to the normalisation of markets, assessed at a 15% likelihood
3 is a heightening of strains with Russia stopping gas exports to Europe, a 5-10% likelihood
And 4 is a bigger escalation, which would also affect oil markets. Assessed at a <5% likelihood
The US has requested a public UN Security COuncil meeting on Monday (January 31).
To discuss the build-up of Russian forces on the Ukraine border.
Info via Reuters, the news service citing unnamed diplomats
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Adding, this via Twitter sources so it may or may not be reliable, passing it on though:
ADDED FURTHER – the US admin says this invasion comment is not correct. (Yep, always be wary of Twitter sources like this):
“distinct possibility” vs. “virtually certain” is a big difference, yes. The distinction/clarification was made by a White House National Security spokesperson,
All the major indices are now lower on the day with the Dow more recently turning negative and giving up a 605.23 point gain.
Last year it was largely about not being able to keep a down market down. This year, there have been a number of rallies, that have fizzled and given up the gains.
In the US debt market the curve continues to flatten with the 2 year up 8 basis points while the 10 year is down around 6 basis points on the day.
The 2-10 year spread has moved to the lowest level since November 2020 as the market prices in higher rates from the Fed and slowing economy.
