IEA says oil market headed for surplus with omicron impact rather muted

  • Despite omicron wave, oil demand rose in Q4 2021 by 1.1 mil bpd to 99 mil bpd
  • But supply will soon overtake demand as some producers set to pump at or above all-time highs
  • Steady rise in supply could see significant surplus in Q1 2022 and going forward
  • US, Canada, Brazil set to pump at all-time highs for the year
  • Russia and Saudi could also break their output records

Analyst says a 50bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March is warranted

The Bloomberg economist says:

  • Our in-house model of a Fed reaction function — the Bloomberg Economics rule (“BE rule”) — suggests that a 50 basis-point rate hike at the March meeting is warranted, followed by another five 25 basis-point rate hikes the rest of the year.

Maybe 50bps is warranted, maybe it isn’t. The Fed is still doing QE on a massive scale. they will not hike by 50bps in March (IMO anyway).

“You want me what?”

Federal Reserve Chair Powell

OPEC says Omicron, rising rates will not subdue oil demand

  • OPEC expects the oil market to continue to be well supported this year, citing robust demand
  • said once again that the impact of the omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived (on oil demand, not your health 😉 )
  • The report pointed to tight supply, an example being the difficulties members of the group are having in boosting output (members added just 166kb/d of oil in December, falling g well under the target of 250kb/d)
  • The report noted the rising risk of further supply disruptions (rising geopolitical strains)

OPEC’s report showed global oil demand in 2022 is expected to rise by 4.15 million barrels per day (bpd) (same as in the previous report) and that use of oil will be greater than 100 million bpd in Q3 (also the same as said in the previous report).

The next OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is on 2 February 2022.


US stocks close sharply lower led by the NASDAQ index as rates move higher

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower led by the NASDAQ index, as equities continue to react to the move higher in rates.

  • The NASDAQ and the Russell index were the hardest hit
  • The Dow industrial average had its its worst day the in 2022
  • Dow industrial average is on a three day losing streak
  • Financials fell sharply led by Goldman Sachs which fell nearly 7% after worse than expected earnings
  • The energy sector was the only S&P sector to rise
  • Financials fell -2.5%
  • Technology fell -2.4%
  • The NASDAQ index close below its 200 day moving average for the first time since April 2020
  • The S&P index closed just above its 100 day moving average at 4575.95

The final numbers are showing:

  • ow industrial average fell -543.34 points or -1.51% at 35368.46
  • S&P index fell 85.74 points or -1.84% at 4577.10
  • NASDAQ index fell -386.85 points or -2.60% at 14506.91
  • Russell 2000 fell -66.23 points or -3.06% at 2096.22

The NASDAQ index closed below its 200 day moving average

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