Bucket shoos where Jesse Livermore used to trade
Archives of “January 24, 2022” day
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Nicolas Darvas
Focus on stocks action rather than other peoples opinion
Iran foreign min opens the door to direct talks with the US
Iran foreign minister Amirabdollahian said Tehran might consider direct talks with the US if it leads to a good outcome.
Signals from Iran nuclear talks have been so murky but I take this is concrete good news. Iran today refused to put prisoners into the negotiation but that’s what leaders always say publicly.
For the White House, high oil prices are a major problem and the easiest barrels to get online in the world are in Iran. That’s a win-win and this is an interesting overture.
Here’s a look at oil, which is off the lows today:
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 January CHF 724.8 bn vs CHF 724.5 bn prior
- Domestic sight deposits CHF 657.4 bn vs CHF 655.1 bn prior
Prior week’s release can be found here. A slight increase in sight deposits but I reckon with EUR/CHF hitting fresh lows since 2015, it will certainly make the SNB more proactive in trying to limit any significant appreciation this week.
Eurozone January flash services PMI 51.2 vs 52.2 expected
- Prior 53.1
- Manufacturing PMI 59.0 vs 57.5 expected
- Prior 58.0
- Composite PMI 52.4 vs 52.6 expected
- Prior 53.3
Goldman Sachs expect FOMC rate hikes in March, June, Sept and Dec but the risk is for more
Weekend note from Goldman Sachs on their Federal Open Market Committee expectations, via Bloomberg (may be gated).
GS forecast FOMC hikes in March, June, September and December, but …
- “We see a risk that the FOMC will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,”
- “This raises the possibility of a hike or an earlier balance sheet announcement in May, and of more than four hikes this year.”
This seems a little over the top from GS. GS say the Fed would hike in 25bp increments at consecutive meetings. GS don’t see 50bp hikes. as likely.
Iran nuclear agreement unlikely without release of U.S. prisoners
Reuters with the report.
- The United States is unlikely to strike an agreement with Iran to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal unless Tehran releases four U.S. citizens Washington says it is holding hostage, the lead U.S. nuclear negotiator told Reuters on Sunday.
- The official, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, repeated the long-held U.S. position that the issue of the four people held in Iran is separate from the nuclear negotiations. He moved a step closer, however, to saying that their release was a precondition for a nuclear agreement.
Oil is higher on the session here in Asia.
Biden is considering sending thousands of US troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics
The tensions in Ukraine are intensifying.
- The president is also considering deploying warships and aircraft to NATO allies, in what would be a major shift from its restrained stance on Ukraine.