September 2021 FOMC meeting results.

Central tendencies September 2021 

Central tendencies for 2021:

• GDP 5.8 % to 6.0 % vs. 6.8% to 7.3% in June.  Lower versus June
• Unemployment rate 4.6% to 4.8% vs 4.4% to 4.8% in June.   Unchanged to marginally higher
• PCE 4.0% to 4.3 % vs. 3.1% to 3.5% in June. Much higher than June
• Core PCE 3.6% to 3.8% vs 2.9% to 3.1% in June. Much higher than June

Central tendencies for 2022:

• GDP 3.4% to 4.5% versus 2.8% to 3.8 percent in June. Much higher than June’s expectations
• unemployment 3.6% to 4.0% versus 3.5% to 4.0% in June. Near unchanged versus June
• PCE 2.0% to 2.5% versus 1.9% to 2.3% in June. Higher and above the 2% target
• Core PCE 2.0% to 2.5% versus 1.9% to 2.3% in June. Higher and above the 2% target

Central tendencies for 2023

• GDP 2.2% to 2.5% versus 2.0% to 2.5% in June.  GDP higher marginally
• Unemployment rate 3.3% to 3.7% versus 3.2% to 3.8% in June. Unemployment no change
• PCE inflation 2.0% to 2.3% versus 2.0% to 2.2% in June.  Little change in PCE inflation projections
• Core PCE 2.0% to 2.3% versus 2.0% to 2.2% in June.  Little change in core PCE

Full statement from the September 2021 FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued September 22, 2021

Last Update: September 22, 2021

FOMC statement highlights from the Sept 22, 2021 release:

Axios is reporting

The Washington Post reports

The Washington post is reporting that former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Paulson both spoke privately with Senate Minority Leader McConnell on the debt ceiling risks.

Two former GOP treasury secretaries held private discussions this month with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) hoping to resolve an impasse over the debt limit that now threatens the global economy, according to four people aware of the conversations. The previously unreported talks involving the GOP economic grandees – Henry Paulson, who served as treasury secretary under President Bush; and Steven Mnuchin, treasury secretary under President Trump – did not resolve the matter and the U.S. is now racing toward a massive fiscal cliff with no clear resolution at hand.