‘Trading and Life’ – #ANIRUDHSETHI

If you enter this world, you better stay invested

Your patience, hard work and skills will often be tested

You need to do a lot of research and get your hands dirty

Get out into the real world; doesn’t matter if you’re twenty or thirty

You need to be a well-oiled machine

You’ve gotta be the sharpest you’ve ever been

The most hardworking person this world’s ever seen

Be on guard, ready to act whether the numbers are red or green

You might take a stumble

And the market might seem to crumble

You should be down for it, engines always ready to rumble

Things might turn sour

And you might find yourself in the lonely hour

But you should never doubt your fire

Keep going, you’re going to thrive

Don’t ever stop, you’ll have a better life (more…)

Kuroda: If necessary, BOJ will further relax monetary policy such as by reducing interest rates

Comments from the BOJ leader

Kuroda picture
  • Sees ongoing virtuous cycle of corporate profits and investment
  • Virtuous cycle of corporate profits and business fixed investment will continue despite
  • Virtuous cycle is operating particularly in manufacturing on the back of firm recovery overseas
  • impact of supply chain disruptions an factory shutdowns in South-East Asia
  • BOJ is committed to achieving 2% inflation target as early as possible
  • If necessary, BOJ will further relax monetary policy such as by reducing interest rates
  • Japan’s private consumption has remained stagnant
  • Expects steady rise in inflation to 2%, though not before 2023
  • Economy will recover with impact of covid waning due to vaccinations
These comments were out a short time ago. USD/JPY has been on the march higher but the rise is more likely due to the strong Empire Fed numbers.

EIA weekly oil inventories -6422K vs -3544K expected

Weekly data from the EIA

  • Crude prior -1529K
  • Distillates -1688K vs -1612K expected
  • Gasoline 1858K vs -1957K expected

Yesterday’s private data from the API:

  • Crude -5437K
  • Gasoline -2716K
  • Distillates -2888K
  • Cushing -1345K

The US SPR stocks fell by 529K bpd. US agsoline demand over the past four weeks is running at 9.41 mbpd.

There has been some minor buying on this but oil had already been sizzling today on expectations that some natural gas power demand will be switched to petroleum due to the energy crisis ongoing in Europe and elsewhere.

oil chart

German Ifo institute expects 3% inflation this year, between 2% to 2.5% in 2022

Ifo provides some projections on German inflation

That’s relatively modest given that we’re already seeing German annual inflation near 4% in August, with many forecasters seeing a push towards 5% before year-end.
In any case, the high readings for 2022 somewhat reaffirms potential sentiment that inflation pressures may not necessarily ease too much going into next year.
The fact that supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks are to persist well into 2022 makes the case for high inflation to stay the course for many more months to come at least.

China has told banks that Evergrande will not pay interest due on 20 September

The latest on the Evergrande situation in China

This has turned into a real calamity and if anything else, the contagion risks are growing bigger by the day. Things are moving quite quickly and fears of any default will heighten risks towards smaller banks and also the property market in general.

Keep an eye on the developments here as they have broader implications for China’s financial sector and in turn, risk sentiment globally as a whole.
It now boils down to a question of whether local authorities are bold enough to stick with making Evergrande an example of its latest shift in mentality or if they are going to bail them out and prevent a chain reaction of unwanted events.
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