Archives of “April 2021” month

rss

Eurozone March final services PMI 49.6 vs 48.8 prelim

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Markit – 7 April 2021

  • Composite PMI 53.2 vs 52.5 prelim
The preliminary report can be found here. Some modest upside revisions to the final readings as also seen in the earlier French and German reports. The composite reading is the highest since last July as economic activity stabilised towards the end of Q1.
The manufacturing sector continues to take the lead with services activity seen improving slightly amid tighter restrictions. That may yet remain the case in Q2 as the virus situation continues to pose a threat for the time being. Markit notes that:

 

“Eurozone business activity bounced back in March, returning to growth after four months of decline with an even stronger expansion than signaled by the forecast-beating ‘flash’ data.

“Manufacturing is booming, led by surging production in Germany, and the hard-hit service sector has come close to stabilizing as optimism about the outlook improved further during the month. Firms’ expectations of growth are running at the highest for just over three years amid growing hopes that the vaccine roll-out will boost sales in the coming months.

“Strengthening demand has already led to the largest rise in backlogs of uncompleted work seen for almost three years, encouraging increasing numbers of firms to take on additional staff. Improving labour markets trends should help further lift consumer confidence and spending as we head into the second quarter.

“The survey therefore indicates that the economy has weathered recent lockdowns far better than many had expected, thanks to resurgent manufacturing growth and signs that social distancing and mobility restrictions are having far less of an impact on service sector businesses than seen this time last year. This resilience suggests not only that companies and their customers are looking ahead to better times, but have also increasingly adapted to life with the virus.”

Dax has entered a strong period of the year

  
Analysis, Global Indices

DAX

There is a general enthusiasm for German stocks despite the recent set back in terms of COVID-19 across the eurozone. Taking a look at the seasonals we have the following data from April 06 – April 30 over the last 10 years.

DAX

Searchable link here.

The DAX has been helped higher by the run up last month in Volkswagen stocks as it makes a move for the electric car market. In fact the rising DAX futures the day after further lockdowns were announced in France was an important affirmation that investors are happy to keep buying German stocks even with an impending third wave of infections.

The average gain has been +2.63% and the maximum profit was +7.81% last year. The only year of loss was in 2015 with a drop of -5.52%. The win ratio is 90% and you can see further breakdown here of the max drop during those periods. Aside from the year of loss in 2015 the largest draw down was -3.54% in 2014. So, the pattern is skewed to the upside for the DAX.

These stats come courtesy of the team at Seasonax.

 

German index

The only area of concern is further lockdowns across the eurozone. However, it hasn’t held the DAX back so far, so perhaps investors are just content to keep looking to the time when the virus is finally under control. Any return back down to 1460 would offer good value to buyers and provide a key area to define and limit risk. The upside surprise would be if there was a sudden increase in the speed of vaccinations across the eurozone. So, two way risks here along with the strong seasonals.

1 in 3 Covid-19 patients are diagnosed with a psychiatric or neurological illness in the next 6 months

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Some less than cheerful news via medical website Stat

  • Six months after being diagnosed with Covid-19, 1 in 3 patients also had experienced a psychiatric or neurological illness
  • mostly mood disorders but also strokes or dementia
  • Compared to control groups of people who had the flu or other non-Covid respiratory infections, first-ever neuropsychiatric diagnoses were almost twice as high
Some less than cheerful news via medical website Stat

US President Biden says he will not be telling the Federal Reserve what to do

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

US President Biden says he has not spoken with Fed Chair Powell

  • “I’m not going to do the kinds of things that have been done in the last administration, either talking to AG…or the Fed telling them what they should and shouldn’t do”
  • “The Federal Reserve is an independent operation.”
The end of an era …   🙁
US President Biden says he has not spoken with Fed Chair Powell

Biden says there is good, and bad, news on US coronavirus

  
Analysis, COVID-19

US President Biden says the good news is that vaccinations are progressing quickly

  • making incredible progress
  • more than 75% of over 65s have had a shot
  • more than 80% of teachers, school staff and child care workers received at least one Covid-19 shot by the end of March
  • US is on track to hit 200m goal in his first 100 days in office
The bad news:
  • new variants of the virus are spreading, moving quickly … and cases are going up
Go to top