Archives of “April 2021” month

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Japan March exports surge +16.1% y/y (vs. expected +11.4% and -4.1% in February)

  
Analysis, Economy

Japan trade balance for March Y 663.7bn, a solid beat thanks to the great export performance

  • expected Y 493.2bn, prior Y 215.9bn

Trade balance adjusted Y 297.8bn

  • expected Y 212.9bn, prior Y -38.7bn

Exports a bigly  +16.1% y/y

  • expected 11.4% y/y, prior -4.5%
  • and +4.3% m/m s.a.

Imports +5.7% y/y, also a solid beat and indicative of a further increase in conumption

  • expected 4.7% y/y, prior 11.8%

Exports to China +37.2% y/y

  • to the US +4.9% y/y
  • to Asia +22.4% y/y
Do take these with at least grain of salt, part of the explanation for these results will be the base effect of comparison to March of 2020 and the initial pandemic hit.

Rumour that US President Biden will accept a 25% corporate tax rate (instead of 28%)

  
Analysis, Politics

A report on US political maneuvering via Axios

  • Democratic senators concerned about raising the corporate tax rate to 28%
  • the rate will likely land at 25%, parties close to the discussion tell Axios
  • Biden’s plan to increase the rate U.S. multinationals pay on their foreign earnings from 10.5% to 21% is less controversial and stands a better chance of remaining intact in the final legislation.
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The background to this is Biden wanting the higher corp tax rate to help ‘pay’ for his infrastructure proposals.

Bitcoin weekend price drop, explanation #2 (or is it #3?) is the China power blackout

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

If you’ve been out and about on the weekend and missed the moves, BTC has given back some of its recent gain:

  • Black Sunday for crypto as bitcoin and others plunge
  • Bitcoin weekend price drop – biggest in nearly 2 months
As for the headline to this post, here is the argument on China’s power blackouts triggering the drop:
  • blackout in China’s Xinjiang region (reportedly powers a lot of bitcoin mining)
  • saw a nearly 50% decline in bitcoin’s hash rate (this measures the processing power being used to mine BTC cryptocurrency, process its transactions)
  • blackouts in China’s Xinjiang region said to be caused by a coal mine explosion in Xinjiang on April 10 ( … maybe they can lift their ban on Australian coal … hmmmm? tee hee), but the blackouts took days to hit bitcoin’s hash rate, which fell from a record high above 215 exahash per second on Wednesday to about 120 exahash per second early on Sunday
April 10 explosion …. impact on April 18. Really? Is this an example of a back-fitted narrative? Anyway, there you go, check out the two linked posts above for alternative explanations.
The latest talk I have heard is 9000 BTC were sold in a series of hits from one Chinese-based ‘whale’. I am a fan of simple explanations and this seems the most likely I have heard.
BTC update:
If you've been out and about on the weekend and missed the moves, BTC has given back some of its recent gain:
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The background to this is that price and hash rate do tend to show correlation. The good news would be, if indeed this is the ’cause’ of the price drop, is that once the hash rate starts to normalize the price of bitcoin should start to recover.

ECB, BOC, PBOC all on the docket this week

  
  Analysis

European Central Bank monetary policy the big one.

Tuesday 20 April 2021  People’s Bank of China 1 and 5 year loan prime rate (LPR) setting
  • 1 year expected 3.85%, prior 3.85%
  • 5 year expected 4.65%, prior 4.65%
Wednesday 21 April the Bank of Canada
  • 1400 GMT
Previews coming but in brief
  • an upgrade to BoC economic growth forecasts is expected
  • there may be some reference to winding back of asset purchases a touch
Thursday 22 April 2021 European Central Bank policy announcement
1145 GMT
Previews coming but in brief
  • no change expected, the pace of asset purchases is likely to be reassessed for the June meeting not this one

ICYMI – Reports China has given banks permission to import large amounts of gold

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

This an ICYMI on reports that Chinese authorities have given domestic and international banks permission to import large amounts of gold into the country

Reuters cited 5 sources for the information
China is the world’s biggest gold consumer but saw a fall in imports during the pandemic as domestic demand switched to other more urgent needs. Economic rebound from H2 2020 kicked off imports again, fuelling a rise in the local premium – if the reports of increased imports are correct the local premium should diminish and the XAU price should benefit.
This an ICYMI on reports that Chinese authorities have given domestic and international banks permission to import large amounts of gold into the country

7 Lessons from “The Wolf of Wall Street”

  
Analysis, Education

Image1. Execute on Ideas Belfort had come up with an idea and he executed it very well. evaluate negative thoughts and avoid them. Ideas are a dime a dozen, but a good execution can make millions.

2. Simplify The reason Belfort was able to execute his thoughts was that he was able to impart his knowledge by giving simple instructions. Even the most stupid could easily understand. “I have just three things to teach: simplicity, patience, compassion.” – Isaac Newton

3. Put Together a Loyal Team Belfort’s team wasn’t the smartest but they were long-term friends, fiercely loyal to him. By doing this you will reduce the risk of Becoming betrayed or backstabbed by two-faced people.

4. Guard Your Secrets Jordan Belfort carefully guarded his secrets. Nobody can guard your secrets better than you. Your secret is your prisoner, which if let loose it will make you its prisoner.

5. Learn From Past Mistakes “I’m a student of history, and I’m a firm believer that he who doesn’t study the mistakes of the past is doomed to repeat them”. – Jordan Belfort

6. Establish a Concrete Reputation There was never any doubt to the employees, nor the public, that anyone could make a ton of money by working for Jordan Belfort.

7. Provide Incentives for Hard Work Not only were the employees of Belfort paid far above the going rate for stockbrokers, but a select few of the hardest working employees were also eligible to branch out on their own and start brokerage firms under Belfort’s guidance.

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