Archives of “April 2021” month

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ICYMI – a missile struck near Israeli nuclear reactor

  
  Analysis

The missile was launched from neighbouring Syria, fired into southern Israel early on Thursday.

  • Air raid sirens were sounded near Israel’s nuclear reactor near Dimona
  • Israeli military attacked the missile launcher and air-defence systems in Syria.
  • There is widespread speculation of likely Iranian involvement, which will be a complication in US-Iran talks seeking to revive the nuclear deal with Iran.
Oil is little changed on the session here.
The missile was launched from neighbouring Syria, fired into southern Israel early on Thursday.

European Central Bank policy meeting Thursday 22 April 2021 – preview

  
  Analysis

Westpac with a quick take on what to expect from the ECB meeting today:

  • The Council will restate their commitment to accommodative conditions and will acknowledge that any imminent lift in inflation will be temporary (and be treated accordingly in a policy context). 
  • There will be some cause for cautious optimism around the coming quarters, despite extended lockdowns delaying the reopening rebound. April consumer confidence will continue to be constrained by the lockdowns and slow vaccine rollout (market f/c: -11).
Via NAB:
  • meeting should be uncontroversial with no change in policy settings, no new forecasts, all against a rather benign market background. 
  • The question will be, is this a meeting where the overall message is the ECB is sufficiently encouraged by the outlook to allow markets to think an upgrade is coming in June, or will developments such as the Euro bounce (itself a sign of a global recovery) and the limited progress in the Recovery Fund, ensure the ECB toes an ongoing cautious line?
—
ECB announcement due at 1145GMT

US economy forecast to grow at its fastest in nearly 40 years

  
Analysis, Economy

Via a Reuters survey of analysts (April 16-20 poll of over 100 economists):

The U.S. economy predicted to grow on average 6.2% this year
  • if so this would be the fastest annual expansion since 1984
  • about 15% of 105 economists predicted the economy would grow 7% or more
Nearly 70% of economists (39 of 56) in response to an additional question said the biggest risk to the economy was a resurgence in coronavirus cases over the next three months.
Comments from BMO:
  • “We raised our growth forecast due to additional fiscal stimulus and the speedy vaccination program”
  • ” “The upshot is that the U.S. economy is smoking. But another wave of cases would put our forecast at risk. For now, we assume it won’t lead to another round of aggressive restrictions.” 
TD are wary of expecting such growth to continue next year:
  •  “As we will get later in the year and certainly in 2022, the boost from not just reopening but also fiscal stimulus will be fading to the point when the stimulus turns into a fiscal drag” 
  •  “So there are a lot of reasons to not simply extrapolate the strong numbers we are seeing now and we expect the net result at the end to be less than a complete recovery in the labor market.” 
—
The consensus view seems to be ‘transitory’ rapid growth (and inflatio

WSJ reports that Credit Suisse’s exposure to Archegos grew to over $20bn

  
  Analysis

Via a WSJ piece, citing people familiar with the matter.

  • Credit Suisse Group amassed more than $20 billion of exposure to investments related to Archegos Capital Management
  • the bank struggled to monitor them before the fund was forced to liquidate many of its large positions .. parts of the investment bank hadn’t fully implemented systems to keep pace with Archegos’s fast growth, the people said.
Link here (may be gated)

Coronavirus – J&J vaccine Phase 3 trial published today

  
Analysis, COVID-19

In the New England Journal of Medicine, article link here:  Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine Efficacy against Covid-19 

The summary of the piece:
  • In a randomized trial involving nearly 40,000 persons, vaccine efficacy was 66% against infection and 85% against severe-critical Covid-19. Efficacy against the variant first identified in South Africa was 64% against moderate disease and 82% against severe-critical disease. 
Check out that link above for more.

EURUSD rebounds back above 50% retracement

  
  Analysis

50% midpoint of the 2021 range comes in at 1.20261

The EURUSD rejected the break above the 100 day MA yesterday and today moved back below the 50% midpoint of the 2021 trading range at 1.20261.
50% midpoint of the 2021 range comes in at 1.20261
However, the selling found buyers just ahead of a swing area between 1.19857 to 1.19943. The low today reached 1.19978.  The move back higher, has pushed the price back above the 50% midpoint level (at 1.20261). That is a tilt more to the upside.
Focus to the upside will once again be centered on the 100 day MA at 1.20548.  Get above that and stay above, is the next key upside hurdle.

US stocks and close near session highs. Snap 2-day losing streak

  
Analysis, US Market

Russell 2000 index biggest gainer on the day

the major US stock indices are closing near their session highs. Each of the major indices are snapping a 2-day losing streak. The small-cap Russell index rose by near 2.4%. The NASDAQ index increase by 1.19%.

  • Advancing the declines by 71
  • New highs on the NASDAQ grew by 99 versus new lows of 94
  • Dow is still on  pace for the largest weekly loss in two months
  • Utilities/communication services lag.
  • IBM was the biggest contributor to the Dow industrial average today
  • materials and energy and technology led the way to the upside
  • The Russell index rose 2.39%
A look at the final numbers shows:
  • S&P index +38.52 points or +0.93% at 4173.46. The high price reached 4175.02
  • NASDAQ index rose 163.95 points or 1.19% at 13950.21. It’s high price reached 13951.35
  • Dow Rose 317.7 to points or 0.94% at 34139.02. The high price reached 34160.34
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