Westpac with a quick take on what to expect from the ECB meeting today:
- The Council will restate their commitment to accommodative conditions and will acknowledge that any imminent lift in inflation will be temporary (and be treated accordingly in a policy context).
- There will be some cause for cautious optimism around the coming quarters, despite extended lockdowns delaying the reopening rebound. April consumer confidence will continue to be constrained by the lockdowns and slow vaccine rollout (market f/c: -11).
- meeting should be uncontroversial with no change in policy settings, no new forecasts, all against a rather benign market background.
- The question will be, is this a meeting where the overall message is the ECB is sufficiently encouraged by the outlook to allow markets to think an upgrade is coming in June, or will developments such as the Euro bounce (itself a sign of a global recovery) and the limited progress in the Recovery Fund, ensure the ECB toes an ongoing cautious line?
ECB announcement due at 1145GMT