Archives of “August 13, 2020” day

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India reports record daily new coronavirus cases of 66,999 in latest update today

  
  Analysis
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That brings the total confirmed cases in the country to nearly 2.4 million

India is among the countries that have been hit the hardest by the pandemic as the struggle to balance between the health crisis and the economic fallout is particularly stark.

As for the health crisis, the bright side is that over 1.6 million of those infected has recovered from the disease. However, the spread is still outpacing the number of recoveries:
India
At the start of July, India reported ~220,000 active cases in the country. That figure is now ~643,000. The only positive – if you really want to look at it that way – is that the mortality sits at just ~1.9%. That is better than the ~3.2% seen in Brazil and the US.
In the bigger picture, as long as the health crisis worsens in India, it will have an impact on the global economic situation in general. Before the pandemic, there have been talks that India’s share of global growth might rival that of US, China in the next decade.
They were already among the top five – some would argue top three – contributors of global growth over the past few years, so any major setback to India will also be a setback for the global economy in that sense.

UK press (Times) report: US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat

  
Analysis, Politics
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UK newspaper The Times with the info on US military assets deployed

  • Three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on the eve of Chinese live-firing naval exercises north of Taiwan.
  • It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions towards Taiwan.
  • The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.
Link is here, Times (may be gated)
Seems rather a long way away:
UK newspaper The Times with the info on US military assets deployed
Taiwan escalation would be likely risk negative. This seems a bit of a small step. Let’s hope it goes no further (probably a forlorn hope).

Here’s what it’ll take for gold (and silver) to climb to new highs ($2100, $30)

  
  Analysis
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  • Real rates are now rising along with nominal yields due to stimulus optimism and risk appetite, with the USD also off its lows. 
  • Given that the US economy will continue to positively respond to an additional trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus and continued Fed measures, it is quite likely that rates and the dollar may see some better days into 2020. 
  • This, along with profit-taking by the very active retail investors and COMEX margin increases should see gold consolidate lower.
  • Before … new highs ($2,100+, $30+), there will need to be confirmation that the Fed will indeed suppress yields, consider average inflation targeting and there are signs that inflation may move higher
  • At the same time, markets will want to see if monetization of debt is in the cards, before talk of these levels becoming sustained is credible. 
  • TD securities projects an average gold price of $2,100/oz in Q4-2021 and $30/oz silver price during the same period

S&P closes just below all time high closing level.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq rises 2.13% on the day

The major indices are all closing higher led by the Nasdaq index.
  • The Dow and S&P are up 9 of the last 10 days
  • The Nasdaq broke the 3 day losing streak.
  • The S&P rose to above the all time highest close at 3386.15 intraday,  but has closed just below that level.
  • The Dow is 2% from recouping all the 2020 losses.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed at 3380.35, that is up 46.66 points or 1.4%. The high reached 3387.89. The low reached 3355. 46.
  • The Nasdaq index closed up 229.41 or 2.13% at 11012.22. The high reached 11036.71. The low reached 10877.16
  • The Dow closed  up 289.93 points or 1.05% at 27976.84. The high reached  28043.89. The low extended to 27843.32.
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