Archives of “July 2020” month

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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.26% at 22,657.38

  
Analysis, Global Indices

A mixed session for Asian equities

Nikkei 28-07
Japanese stocks climbed earlier but amid a pullback in gold, the risk mood sort of adjusted a little in trading today as Asian equities also pare some of its earlier gains.
The Nikkei is finishing the day lower while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are both sitting up by ~0.4% currently. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are trading at flat levels after having observed about a 14 points gain earlier in Asia Pacific trading.
In the currencies space, the dollar is keeping slightly firmer but gains aren’t really too significant for the time being. EUR/USD is lower at around 1.1740, while USD/JPY is hovering close to 107.50 as we look towards the start of the European session.

Tokyo reportedly finds 266 new coronavirus cases in latest update today

  
  Analysis
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NHK reports on the latest virus situation in the Japanese capital

That just reaffirms the narrative that the low count from yesterday was largely skewed by the ‘weekend effect’ and the fact that there was a long weekend in Japan.

The virus trajectory in Japan has not been encouraging since the start of the month, with the spread of infections already surpassing that seen during the initial outbreak. As of yesterday, Japan has recorded over 8,000 active cases – the most since early May.

Japan
For now, the government is still maintaining that the situation does not call for any extraordinary measures to curb the spread of infections but let’s see how long they can keep at this with the Olympics next year a key focus as well.

Fitch has affirmed China’s rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook

  
Analysis, Economy

The agency has a very modest outlook for 2020 GDP for the country, forecasting real GDP at +2.7% this year

  • Says the economy is making a remarkable recovery
Chinese authorities are in a position to enforce quite draconian lock down measures if needed, which does help stem the spread of the infection when needed. Not a step that can be taken in many other countries to the same extent.

27 28 29

  
Analysis, Education
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Did you say twenty-seven, twenty-eight, and twenty-nine? Brilliant! You’ve passed the second-hardest part of doing well in the market. Now for the hardest part. Look again at the numbers and say out loud the number that is the highest. Now say the lowest. Which number is between both numbers? Did you say that twenty-seven was the lowest and that twenty-nine was the highest? If you also said that twenty-eight was in the middle, then you’ve passed the test with flying colors! You are on your way to being very successful in the markets. You may be laughing, but I am dead serious. If it really is that simple to recognize what the market is saying at all times, why do you have to complicate it? The vision test that you have taken proves that you can recognize different numbers, and the I.Q. test demonstrates that you know the relationships among them. Believe me when I say that no other knowledge of the market is necessary. This exam determines that you are clearly capable of an egoless view of the market a Zen view, if you wish. A view that is free of personality needs. Twenty-nine is higher than twenty-seven. No one can dispute that. Not even your ego, no matter how hard it may try.

You’ve proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that you can tell when you’ve got a profit and when you’ve got a loss. There is no question about it. Absolutely none. When you buy something at 27 and it goes to 29, you know that you are showing a profit. Absolutely no doubt about it. Conversely, when you do the opposite, you know that you are sitting with a loser. If you bought at 29 and now the price is lower, you must recognize that you have a loss. Don’t rationalize and say that you don’t have a loss until you sell. And don’t say that you know it will come back. You don’t know that, either. And if you say it’s a long-term investment, you’re just kidding yourself. That’s just another way of not having to deal with a mistake. Your ego is just hoping, trying to shield itself from the pain of being wrong. You’ve proven that you know the difference between a profit and a loss. That’s the easy part. Doing something about it is where the difficulty lies.

Trading Expectations

  
Analysis, Education

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. what you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. when you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.

Traps and Pitfalls:

  
Analysis, Education
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  1. Bad Markets – A good pattern won’t bail you out of a bad market, so move to the sidelines when conflict and indecision take hold of the tape. Your long-term survival depends on effective trade management. The bottom line: don’t trade when you can’t measure your risk, and stand aside when you can’t find your edge.
  2. Bad Timing – It’s easy to be right but still lose money. Financial instruments are forced to negotiate a minefield of conflicting trends, each dependent on different time frames. Your positions need to align with the majority of these cycles in order to capture the profits visualized in your trade analysis.
  3. Bad Trades – There are a lot of stinkers out there, vying for your attention, so look for perfect convergence before risking capital on a questionable play, and then get out at the first sign of danger. It’s easy to go brain dead and step into a weak-handed position that makes absolutely no sense, whether it moves in your favor or not. The bottom line: it’s never too late to get out of a stupid trade.
  4. Bad Stops – Poor stops will shake you out of good positions. Stops do their best work when placed outside the market noise, while keeping risk to a minimum. Many traders believe professionals hit their stops because they have inside knowledge, but the truth is less mysterious. Most of us stick them in the same old places.
  5. Bad Action – Modern markets try to burn everyone before they launch definable trends. These shakeouts occur because most traders play popular strategies that have been deconstructed by market professionals. In a sense, the buy and sell signals found in TA books are turned against the naïve folks using them.

About 84,545 bank fraud cases reported during 2019-20: RBI in RTI reply

  
  Analysis
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Around 84,545 fraud cases – involving about Rs 1.85 lakh crore – were reported by scheduled commercial banks and select FIs during 2019-20, an RTI activist said, citing information received from the Reserve Bank of India.

RTI (Right to Information) activist Abhay Kolarkar said that he had sought various banking related queries under the jurisdiction of the RBI in June 2020, and the replies to the same he received a few days back.

Kolarkar in his RTI query sought to know how many fraud cases have taken place during April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020 and the amount involved in it.

The RBI stated that the total number of frauds reported by Scheduled commercial banks and select FIs during Financial Year 2019-20 is 84,545 and the amount involved therein is Rs 1,85,772.42 crore.

To the query about how many bank employees are involved in fraud cases and how much amount is involved, the RBI replied that the information on the question is not available.

“However, it may be noted that total number of frauds reported to have been committed by staff, as reported by Scheduled commercial banks and Select FIs during FY 2019-20 is 2,668 and amount involved therein is Rs 1,783.22 cr,” the central bank said.

The RTI also sought to know how many consumer complaints received by the RBI’s 15 ombudsmen offices during April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020.

During July 1, 2019 to March 2020, about 2,14,480 complaints were received.

The highest number of complaints received by SBI- 63,259, HDFC bank- 18,764, ICICI bank- 14,582, Punjab National Bank- 12,469, Axis bank -12,214 followed by other banks.

The central bank in its reply said about 56,493 complaints received between April 1, 2019 to June 30, 2019.

The RTI query also sought information on number of branches exited by banks and those closed after merger during April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020.

To which, the RBI provided information about the ‘number of merged branches with another branch of same bank’ during 2019-2020, which stood at 438 branches — SBI – 130, Central Bank of India – 62, Allahabad Bank – 59 and other banks.

The total number of branches closed in 2019-20 are 194, including 78 branches of SBI and 25 of Fino payments Bank limited.

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