Archives of “April 2020” month

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Cruise ship booking firm sees 40% increase in its 2021 bookings compared to 2019

  
  Analysis
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Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings.

  • bookings for cruises are already on the rise of 2021, according to multiple reports
  • In the past 45 days cruise booking site CruiseCompete.com saw a 40% increase in its bookings for 2021 over its 2019 bookings
  • A recent report from UBS also found that 76% of the people who had a cancelled cruise in 2020 have chosen to accept credit towards a future cruise in 2021 as opposed to 24% who accepted a refund.
Here is the link for more. Amazing.
Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings. 

The number of potential coronavirus vaccines in development is now above 70

  
Analysis, Life
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But, these are just two of many. The World Health Organization (WHO) says there are 70 coronavirus vaccines in development globally:
  • three are already already being tested in human trials
There are manufacturing contenders in the race:
  • Hong Kong-listed CanSino Biologics
  • Beijing Institute of Biotechnology
  • US’ Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceuticals
  • Pfizer and Sanofi also

China trade balance data for March, exports down 3.5% y/y (yuan terms)

  
Analysis, Economy

China data, the trade balance reported for January to March inclusive is 98.3bn yuan surplus

  • China trade balance for March alone is surplus of 130bn yuan (via Reuters calculation): expected CNY 158.5bn
  • Exports -3.5% y/y: expected -12.8%
  • Imports +2.4% y/y: expected -7.0%

For Q1:

  • exports -11.4% y/y
  • imports -0.7% y/y
Cina customs bureau commetns:
  • global economy faces mounting downward pressure
  • uncertainties are on the rise
  • China’s foreign trade is encountering bigger difficulties

AUDUSD trades to a new session high

  
Analysis, Forex

Highest level since March 12

The AUDUSD is trading to a new day high and in the process is trading at the highest level since March 12. The high price reached 0.6388.
Highest level since March 12
Last week (on Thursday) the price moved above the 50% retracement of the move down from the end of December high at 0.6268. The price also moved above the March 9 low at 0.6300 level.   The high price has reached  0.63883 today. Close risk off the daily is 0.6300 and then 0.62681.  Stay above is more bullish.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the pair is in an uptrend and testing a topside trend line as the market consolidates with a upside bias. The lower trend line comes in at 0.6334. Bulls would eye that level for intraday support. Move below and the pair may look to correct toward the 0.6300 support from the daily chart.
AUDUSD on the hourly chart
Buyers in control in the AUDUSD as technical levels are breached.  However, the price has work to do on the hourly to continue the trend today.

Gold futures/spot spread narrows but questions remain

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

Supply chain issues a part of the story

There’s a risk-free arbitrage available in buying gold and selling it in the futures market but few are  taking advantage of it.
You could buy 100 ounces of gold at spot and sell on futures contract and pocket $6400 in June.
Spot trades at a $44 discount to the futures market and the issue appears to be in supply chains and refining. Spot is at $1691 and futures are at $1734 after hitting $1753 to mark a multi-year high.
This chart shows the relationship over time.
Supply chain issues a part of the story
The only reason you wouldn’t do the trade is because you’re worried you couldn’t have 100 ounces of deliverable gold in June.
The reason is that refineries are off-line because of staff coronavirus worries.
For traders, the question is how the spread will narrow — with spot rising to the futures prices or futures coming down to spot. In the past week, the answer has been futures sliding but it bears close watching.
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