Archives of “computer virus” tag

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FOMC meeting minutes, what to expect later?

  
  Analysis
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Likely more noise more than anything else

Fed

The market will be keenly eyeing the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes later today but it is unlikely to tell us much that we don’t already know at the moment.

The Fed has acknowledged that the economic situation is starting to worsen a little and cast a bit of a dark cloud over the outlook in 2H 2020, considering the fact that the virus situation was escalating rather rapidly across the US last month.
If anything, I would say the minutes should just reaffirm that sentiment and also highlight that the Fed will still do whatever it takes to bolster the economy.
Other than that, there may be room to look out for potential policy changes/tweaks – possibly on future communication – but that is unlikely to offer much as the longer-term plan remains in tact (still just be mindful of this space in any case).
While the market may be looking to the minutes for further suggestions, it is not likely to change the themes that we have been seeing so far to start the week.
The softer outlook may be a signal for equities to pause after hitting all-time highs but for the dollar, election uncertainty and the stalemate on stimulus talks have been factors that are weighing on the currency; and those won’t be going away.
The dollar gave up on some key technical levels in trading yesterday but amid a tricky August so far, let’s see if sellers have the conviction to follow through ahead of the weekend.

Four headlines hit at virtually the same time to undercut sentiment

  
  Analysis
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Risk trades leg lower in a big way

Commodity currencies and stocks were caught in a quick downdraft after at least four headlines hit at virtually the same time:
  • Florida virus cases spike
  • Beijing moved to phase-2 containment on the latest virus outbreak, closing schools
  • Texas virus hospitalizations rose 8.3% to hit a record
  • Powell indicated that corporate bond buying probably won’t be aggressive and is more of a contingency
The S&P 500 is up just 0.45% after rising nearly 3% at the open.
Trump rant about Powell incoming…

Cruise ship booking firm sees 40% increase in its 2021 bookings compared to 2019

  
  Analysis
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Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings.

  • bookings for cruises are already on the rise of 2021, according to multiple reports
  • In the past 45 days cruise booking site CruiseCompete.com saw a 40% increase in its bookings for 2021 over its 2019 bookings
  • A recent report from UBS also found that 76% of the people who had a cancelled cruise in 2020 have chosen to accept credit towards a future cruise in 2021 as opposed to 24% who accepted a refund.
Here is the link for more. Amazing.
Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings. 

Risk remains softer ahead of European trading

  
  Analysis
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Virus worries weigh on the market but Chinese stocks are still rallying

USGG10YR

Treasury yields are lower across the curve with 10-year yields back under 1.50%, slipping to its lowest levels since September last year as the market is leaning towards being more risk averse ahead of European trading today.
In turn, gold is breaking out in a strong way with price near the highs now around $1,628 with the currencies space also reflecting softer risk flows.
The aussie and kiwi are weighed lower with the franc among the better performers, despite narrower trading for the time being. USD/JPY is also seeing a bit of a pullback under 112.00 for now, so perhaps are we seeing a return to the norm for the yen?
Despite the negativity, Chinese stocks are continuing to rally as authorities prop up the equities market with more and more stimulus measures. The run just keeps going.
SHCOMP
It’ll be interesting to see if Wall Street can turn things around later today, but with PMI readings in the European morning likely to reaffirm worries about global growth, I reckon we may be set for a more risk averse period before the weekend this time around.

More Powell testimony: Will see virus impact in data fairly soon

  
  Analysis
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More from chair Powell’s testimony in the Senate

  • we will see virus-infected data fairly soon
  • affects could be important in China
  • supply chains is an important issue.
  • Financial markets can also transmit a reaction to virus

Fed Powell concludes his testimony at 11:24 AM ET.

Overall, the comments were in line with yesterday’s testimony and really didn’t shed any new light that we don’t already know. Coronavirus major concern but it’s too early to tell. The Fed is in continue repo operations the 2nd quarter. The economy is in a good place.
US stocks have been waffling back and forth but moving back higher. The S&P index is just off the day’s high level as is the NASDAQ index. The Dow industrial average is a little further off the intraday record high levels

Chinese doctor and early coronavirus whistleblower dies

  
  Analysis
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Dr. Li Wenliang was one of 8 doctors visited by policy after early warnings on virus

Dr. Li Wenliang was one of 8 doctors visited by policy after early warnings on virus
Ophthalmologist Dr. Li Wenliang become somewhat of a folk hero in China as one of the 8 doctors who was disciplined by police after warning fellow doctors to wear protective clothing because of a new SARS virus.
He was then visited by policy and the Public Security Bureau where he was told to sign a letter where he was accused of “making false comments” that had “severely disturbed the social order”.
On the weekend, he revealed he had contracted the virus himself after testing negative a number of times.
“Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled, finally diagnosed,” he said in a video that was widely watched.
State media is now reporting that the 34-year-old died today. He had a wife and five-year-old daughter. There are reports that his wife is sick as well.
What a tragedy.
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