Archives of “April 2020” month

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US stocks move higher led by the Nasdaq index

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow lags as Boeing slumps

The US stock indices closed higher on the day led by the Nasdaq index. The S&P  and Dow closed higher as well but the gains were well behind the tech heavy Nasdaq. For the Dow, the blame fall firmly on Boeing which alone fell over 7% on the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 16.19 points or 0.58% at 2799.55
  • Nasdaq index rose 139.18 points or 1.66% at 8532.36
  • Dow rose 33.33 points or 0.14% at 23537.68

White House: G7 leaders agree to remain committed to global response to coronavirus

  
  Analysis
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White House comments regarding G7 leaders

  • G7 leaders agreed to remain committed to global response to humanitarian, economic calamity stemming from pandemic and to launch a strong and sustainable recovery
  • leaders called for a thorough review and reform process that World Health Organization
  • much of G7 leaders call centered on lack of transparency and chronic mismanagement of the pandemic by the World Health Organization
  • G7 leaders discussed efforts to pool research on coronavirus by sharing data and making it publicly available

European shares close with mostly modest gains

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German Dax up 0.5%

The European shares are closing with mostly modest gains as Germany works toward the reopening of the economy.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX up 0.5%  . The low reached -0.42%
  • France’s CAC up 0.2%.  The low reach -0.80%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.8%. The low reached -0.35%
  • Spain’s Ibex up 0.3%. The low reached -1.56%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.7%. The low reached +0.06%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending with declines across the board, with the Italian yields falling the most at -3.9 basis points.
European yields are lower
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit shows:
  • spot gold up $10.28 or 0.60% at $1727.37
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.22 or 1.11% at $20.10

Elliott Management says stocks could ultimately fall 50% from Feb levels

  
  Analysis

Paul Singer’s fund sends bearish letter

Paul Singer's fund sends bearish letter
Vulture fund manager Paul Singer’s Elliott Management sent a letter to clients yesterday saying stocks could ultimately fall 50% from Feb levels. That would target 1700 in the S&P 500.
Singer is a legendary distressed debt manager and extremely combative market participant. He’s also been wildly successful, including winning a lawsuit against Argentina’s government on defaulted debt. His firm manages $40 billion.
“Our gut tells us that a 50% or deeper decline from the February top might be the ultimate path of global stock markets,” the letter said.
That said, they have bought some “shining bargains” in bonds and stocks.
More at Reuters.

Switzerland outlines plans to slowly re-open

  
  Analysis
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Swiss government outlines plans for what’s next

  • Doctors, hairdressers, massage and cosmetic parlours can reopen April 27
  • Obligatory schools, stores and markets reopening on May 11
  • Expands financial support to cover more self-employed people such as taxi drivers
  • Non-obligatory schools, universities, museums, zoos and libraries to reopen on June 8
  • Easing of restrictions to be accompanied by protective measures and obligation to wear masks is possible
  • Relaxation of restrictions hinges on no significant rise in new COVID-19 cases
  • Vulnerable people should stay at home
The big question for the rest of the year is how well this will work and how many cases/deaths are ‘tolerable’.

OPEC says April oil demand to fall 12 mbpd, Q2 to be -12 mbpd. Risks to the downside

  
Analysis, Crude

OPEC forecasts

  • Cuts 2020 world oil demand forecast by 6.9 mbpd
  • Says April demand to contract by 20 mbpd
  • Q2 demand to be down by around 12 mbpd
  • 2020 non-OPEC supply is forecast to decline by 1.5 mbpd
  • Downward risks in oil demand forecast remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments
These numbers are fanciful and the comment about downward adjustments is the important one. US gasoline demand as down nearly 50% in the weekly EIA report. WTI is chopping around $20.20.
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