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Full statement from the FOMC April 2020 decision

FOMC statement from April 2020

Below is the full statement from the April 2020 FOMC rate decision

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.

Federal Reserve says rates to stay at bottom until economy on track

Federal Reserve rate decision highlights April 29, 2020

Federal Reserve rate decision highlights April 29, 2020
  • Rates unchanged in a range of 0.00%-0.25%, as expected
  • Fed says rates to stay at lower bound until economy has weathered recent events and on track to achieve unemployment and inflation goals
  • Fed funds rate 2-year projection vs 1.6% prior
  • Fed funds rate 3-year projection vs 1.9% prior
  • Fed funds rate long-term projection vs 2.50% prior
Powell will host a virtual press conference at 1830 GMT. The next scheduled meeting is June 9-10

European shares end with solid gains as risk on sentiment increases

Hopes f him him him rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

European indices are ending the session with solid gains on hopes from the Gilead remdesivir drug,
  • German DAX, +3.0%
  • France’s CAC, +2.32%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.77%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +3.24%
In the European 10 year note sector are mostly lower with the exception of Italy (their credit rating was lowered by Fitch after the close yesterday)
Hopes f him him him _rom Gilead news propel European shares higher.

(more…)

Seeing some dollar selling as hopes for a vaccine improve

Stocks higher and hopes are higher after Gilead remdesivir drug trials

The news that Gilead’s remdesivir 2 clinical trials showed that an open-label Phase 3 trial testing the therapy in severely ill patients, found that those taking a 5-day or 10-day course of treatment led to similar results. The study showed that:

  •  52% of participants taking either dosing regimen were discharged from the hospital after 14 days of treatment,
  • At least 53% of those patients were reported as reaching “clinical recovery.

Gilead chief medical officer Merdad Parsey said in a statement. “The study demonstrates the potential for some patients to be treated with a 5-day regimen, which could significantly expand the number of patients who could be treated with our current supply of remdesivir.”

Gilead also said that a government-run clinical trial evaluating remdesivir in severely ill COVID-19 patients met the study’s primary endpoint. That study is being conducted by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,

The news has sent the dollar lower as flows out of the safe haven currency is the initial reaction.
The EURUSD has moved from 1.0838 to a high of 1.0866.  The pairs 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is at 1.08684. A move back above that level would be more bullish. The 200 hour MA at 1.08336 is a risk level for longs.
The GBPUSD was testing its 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.2398 area but has since moved away from those MAs and trades at 1.24309 currently.  The 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 14 high comes in at 1.24466. The price has been above and below that level in trading both yesterday and today. Moving back above it would be more positive/bullish.
The USDCAD is trading to a new session low of 1.3917 (currently at 1.3932). A swing area going back to April 9 through April 15 comes in at 1.3920 to 1.3930.  Although the price dipped below that level, downside momentum could not be continued. A move below that level will be needed to solicit more selling toward the April 13 low at 1.38548.

Germany forecasts worst recession since at least 1950

The German government expects the fallout from the virus outbreak to send the economy into its worst recession since the aftermath of WWII

Germany
  • Forecasts GDP to fall by 6.3% in 2020
  • Forecasts GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2021
The above is the latest projections by the economy ministry, and that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the economic hit across the globe – not just in Germany.
This hinges on some kind of U-shaped or V-shaped recovery but the issue is we’re not even going to be sure how the next quarter is going to look like.
The focus right now is on easing restrictions but what happens if there is a secondary outbreak or the infection rate starts rising again? The latest report from Germany is that the virus’ reproduction rate is back up to 0.96 from 0.70 as of Monday.
If that goes back above 1.00, will the government impose another round of restrictions? What happens if this continues all the way into Q3 or even Q4?
It is very much play by ear at this point and the same applies to every country in the world.

Gilead trial for Covid-19 meets primary endpoint

Push stocks higher

  • Gilead Remdesivir trial for Covid-19 has met primary endpoint
  • Study to provide info on 5-day duration of therapy
  • will share added Remdesivir data from phase 3 shortly
  • Seees data from 2nd simple study at the end of May

US advanced GDP for 1Q -4.8% versus -4.0% estimate

US GDP for 1Q 2020

The US advanced GDP data for the 1Q came in at +4.8% initially but the headlines were then corrected to read -4.8% vs -4.0% estimate.
  • Personal consumption fell -7.6% vs -3.6% estimate
  • Core PCE rose 1.8% vs 1.7% estimate
  • GDP price index rose 1.3% vs 1.0% estimate
The data signals the start of the recession.  The worst is yet to come as GDP is expected to plunge in the 2Q
US  GDP
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