The German government expects the fallout from the virus outbreak to send the economy into its worst recession since the aftermath of WWII
- Forecasts GDP to fall by 6.3% in 2020
- Forecasts GDP to grow by 5.2% in 2021
The above is the latest projections by the economy ministry, and that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the economic hit across the globe – not just in Germany.
This hinges on some kind of U-shaped or V-shaped recovery but the issue is we’re not even going to be sure how the next quarter is going to look like.
The focus right now is on easing restrictions but what happens if there is a secondary outbreak or the infection rate starts rising again? The latest report from Germany is that the virus’ reproduction rate is back up to 0.96 from 0.70 as of Monday.
If that goes back above 1.00, will the government impose another round of restrictions? What happens if this continues all the way into Q3 or even Q4?
It is very much play by ear at this point and the same applies to every country in the world.