March 2020 - Page 23 of 36 - Financial Occultist

That is the fifth time that has happened this month

This follows similar record purchases on 2 March, 6 March, 9 March, and 10 March. And even so, the Nikkei still fell by 4.4% today to post its lowest close since 2017.

At this stage, it is almost all but certain that the central bank will announce an increase in ETF purchases during its policy meeting decision next week.

Ifo says more than half of German firms have been hit by fallout from the virus outbreak

12-Mar-20 01:49 pm

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

Ifo institute with their latest survey among 3,400 German firms

56% are suffering from negative effects from the virus outbreak
63% of manufacturing and trade companies said they were negatively affected
Problems from postponement of business trips, supply chain issues, lower demand
96% of firms in the tourism sector, 79% in hospitality sector said they were affected

It is but a small sample size and I would argue that the negative implications don’t just apply to one particular country. It is pretty much the same all across the globe and the impact is much worse on countries like Italy, Japan and South Korea.

US Congress’ attending doctor says expects coronavirus infections to number 70 to 150 million

12-Mar-20 05:22 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

US media report on ‘closed meeting’ comments from Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court.

a closed-door meeting Tuesday that included Senate administrative office staff and personnel from both parties

The report adds:

Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said earlier this month that he thinks about 40% to 70% of the world’s population could become infected with the virus, and of those, 1% will die

1% of 70 million (let alone the upper estimate) is 700,000 dead.

Link

Coronavirus – CME will close its Chicago trading floor at end-Friday

12-Mar-20 05:19 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

Floor will close indefinitely. Globex trade to continue.

CME group to close Chicago trading floor as a precaution
reopening of trading floor will be evaluated as more medical guidance on coronavirus becomes available
will close its Chicago trading floor as of close of business Friday, March 13, 2020, as a precaution to reduce large gatherings
no coronavirus cases have been reported on trading floor or in Chicago board of trade building
company’s headquarters will remain open
all products will continue to trade on CME Globex as they do today.

Coronavirus – Italy has ordered all shops to close, except pharmacies and groceries

12-Mar-20 05:17 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

Factories can continue to work (with adequate precautions)

More:

food deliveries will still be permitted
all cafes/restaurants will be closed unless can guarantee at ;east 1 metre distance between customers
public services like post, transport remain

PM Conte hopeful effects will be seen, may take a couple of weeks. Adds that if cases rise near term it does not mean even tighter restrictions

US major indices hit bear market levels today

12-Mar-20 05:14 am

Anirudh Sethi

Intraday lows reach -20%

The US major indices all hit bear market levels today (-20% from the all time highs).

The S&P index -20% level comes in at 2714.81. The low reached 2707.22
The Nasdaq index -20% level comes in at 7870.69. The low reached 7850.945
The Dow -20% level comes in at 23654.85. The low reached 23328.32.

The closing levels for the day are showing:

S&P index -140.85 points or -4.89% at 2741.38. The low reached 2707.22. The high extended to 2825.60
Nasdaq index fell minus 392.20 points or -4.7% at 7952.05. The low for the day reach 7850.945. The high extended to 8181.35
Dow fell -1464.94 points or -5.86% at 23553.22. The low for the day reached 23328.32. The high for the day extended to 24604.63

In addition to each of the major indices falling over 20% from the high, the Dow industrial average fell below its 200 week moving average at 23619.19. The price also close below that 200 day moving average. If the week closes below the 200 week moving average, it would be the 1st time since October 1, 2010.

The NASDAQ index is also dipped below its 100 week moving average at 7906.97. The price closed above that moving average level.

The next major target for the S&P is at its 200 week moving average at 2640.22. The low price today at 2707.22 is still 67 points away.