Fitch ratings
- ongoing coronavirus outbreak will dampen economic growth in China this year
- if Chinese govt were to launch a large-scale stimulus to offset effects of coronavirus, it could have adverse effect on other policy goals
- still too early to make definitive adjustments to China’s GDP forecasts at this stage & instead have examined some illustrative scenarios
- huge uncertainties remain over impact of coronavirus on China’s economy
- says China govt only likely launch large-scale stimulus if economic impact of virus proves substantially larger than SARS outbreak in 2003
- if epidemic is not contained until well into Q2 growth could fall more steeply, China GDP growth in Q1 could be closer to 3%
more to come