Archives of “February 4, 2020” day

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European shares and sharply higher on risk on flows

  
Analysis, Global Indices

German DAX, +1.76% is the biggest one-day gain since October 11

The European stock market was also invited to the “risk on” party today.  All the major indices are up sharply. The German DAX has enjoyed its biggest one-day gain since October 11.  Party on.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.76%
  • France’s CAC, +1.68%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.53%.  That is the biggest one-day in 7 weeks
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.64%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.64%
In the European debt market, the 10 year benchmark yields are also mostly higher (the exception is in Italy) as risk fears abate.
German DAX, +1.76% is the biggest one-day gain since October 11In other markets, risk on flows are pervasive:
  • spot gold is now down $24.28 or -1.54% at $1552.43
  • WTI crude oil futures are higher by $0.50 or 1.0% at $50.61, but they are still off the sessions high $51.55. The low today at $49.66 was the lowest level since January 2018.
In the US stock market, the NASDAQ index is up nearly 2% on the day (amazing). The snapshot currently shows:
  • S&P index up 55.34 points or 1.7% at 3304.27
  • NASDAQ index is up 184.55 points or 1.99% at 9458
  • DOw is up 490 points or 1.73% at 28890.34
In the US debt market yields are also higher with the 5 year up 7.5 basis points and the 10 year up 7.2 basis points:

Michael Bloomberg climbs into 2nd place on PredictIt for Democratic nominee

  
Analysis, Politics
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Michael Bloomberg is going to get a chance to make his case

Michael Bloomberg is going to get a chance to make his case
We’re still waiting for results from the Iowa caucus but it’s expected to be a win for Bernie or Pete Buttigieg. The story in betting markets, however, is the poor performance from Joe Biden. The market is coming around to the idea that he can’t win and that establishment voters may turn elsewhere.
That leaves Klobuchar, who remains distantly behind, and Bloomberg, who is having his moment.
The billionaire has risen to 20% on PredictIt and passed Joe Biden. I think he lacks the charisma and ability to connect with people to sustain any real momentum, but he certainly has the deep pockets to sustain a run.
If he loses to Bernie, he’s ruled out a 3rd party run but I’m sure he will be dogged by those questions.

Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading

  
Analysis, Global Indices

The more positive tone reverberates to Europe in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.6%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.5%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.7%
This largely mirrors the more positive mood seen in US futures, which are up by ~0.7% currently. The market continues to view that fears of the coronavirus outbreak are receding and that is also helping to push bond yields and yen pairs higher so far today.

Chinese stocks fall offer phoenix entry

  
  Analysis

Low enough for you?, via Bloomberg

____Low enough for you?, via Bloomberg 
The Chinese open was always going to be bad with all the stored up coronavirus fears released in one go after the extended lunar New Year holiday. The open was as bad as feared, if not slightly worse, with the Shanghai Comp opening down more than -8.0% at the start of the week and the CSI300 down more than -9.1%. This was the worst opening in nearly 13 years.
This price drop was a 3+ standard deviation and took valuations back to 12 months lows. Statisticians put this kind of event in the ‘outlier’ section. The attraction of a day like yesterday is that for investors who are bullish on China’s outlooks this does offer a tempting entry point. The Shanghai Composite was trading yesterday at 9.7 times prejected full year earning which is just over half the ration for the S&P 500.
The PBOC is actively supporting the Chinese economy and a number of large, longer term investors will be drawn off the sidelines to these bargain prices. Of course whether it is a bargain or not turns on the further outbreak/containment on the coronavirus.

CSI 300

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.49% at 23,084.59

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities rebound amid positive cues since overnight trading

Nikkei 04-02

Wall Street posted decent gains in overnight trading and Chinese markets are also observing more calm on the day, helping to give investors a morale boost after the more tepid and cautious tone in Asia Pacific trading yesterday.

The Hang Seng is up by 1.0% while we are seeing the Shanghai Composite higher by 1.2% while the CSI 300 index is up by 2.5% on the day currently, recovering from the beatdown suffered yesterday after returning from the extended break.
US futures and Treasury yields are also keeping higher as fears surrounding the coronavirus outbreak situation is seen receding for now. That is keeping yen pairs higher on the day with USD/JPY up to 108.82 currently, while gold is down 0.3% to $1,572 at the moment.

Solid recovery day for the US stock indices, but Dow and S&P lag

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ composite index leads the way with a 1.34% gain

The US stock market had a solid recovery today especially in the NASDAQ index. That index rose 1.34% on the day. On Friday the NASDAQ index fell by -1.59%. The S&P and Dow indices both lagged, however.
The final numbers for the major indices are showin:
  • S&P index +23.4 points or 0.73% at 3248.92. The index fell by -1.77% on Friday. The high today reached 3268.44. The low extended to 3235.66
  • Nasdaq index rose 122.46 points or 1.34% at 9273.40. The high price reached 9299.85. The low extended to 9188.55
  • Dow rose 143.78 points or 0.51% at 28399.83. The high reached 28630.39. The low extended to 28319.65

In after hours trading alphabet reported

  • revenues of $46.08 billion versus estimates of $46.94 billion
  • earnings-per-share came in at $15.35 versus $12.53
The current shares are trading down -2.2% at $1450.05
Major indices in the US close higher but off the highs levels
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