Death toll is going to continue to rise
Archives of “January 25, 2020” day
rssA huge earnings calendar next week.
A huge earnings calendar next week.
In addition to any escalation of the coronavirus, the stock markets will be tested next week by a plethora of earnings announcements. The “Who’s Who” of companies will be announcing. Below is the schedule of the major releases (subject to change):
Monday, January 27
- DR Horton
- Whirlpool
Tuesday, January 28
- 3M
- Starbucks
- Apple
- Pfizer
- Lockheed Martin
Wednesday, January 29
- Tesla
- McDonald’s
- Microsoft
- Boeing
- AT&T
- General Electric
- Paypal
Thursday, January 30
- UPS
- Amazon
- Coca-Cola
- Electronic Arts
- Biogen
- Raytheon
- Verizon
- Northrop Grumman
Friday, January 31
- Chevron
- Honeywell
- Caterpillar
- Exxon Mobil
- Colgate-Palmolive
China’s says 444 new confirmed cases of coronavirus
The number of deaths surge as well
Wuhan city reports that another 15 people died on Friday, bringing the death toll to 41.
China also reported today that a relatively healthy young man was killed by the virus. That raises the risk that it might be more deadly that previously believed.
The sequence of confirmed cases:
- Jan 17: 41
- Jan 19: 62
- Jan 20: 201
- Jan 21: 291
- Jan 22: 440
- Jan 24: 830
- Jan 25: 1287
There are a dozen or so confirmed cases outside the country, with many more under monitoring. There is one reported case of a man in Vietnam who had no travel history to Wuhan but was a family member of a confirmed case who visited the city. However that means that person-to-person transmission has occurred outside of China.
In addition, 19 provinces reported 1118 new suspected cases with 30 provinces now reporting at least one case.
CFTC Commitments of traders: JPY shorts increase to largest level since early December
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC
- EUR short 47K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- GBP long 25K vs 31K long last week. Longs increased by 6K
- JPY short 45K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 14k
- CHF 1.5K vs flat last week. Longs increased by 1.5K
- AUD short 19k vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- NZD long 1.8K vs square last week. Longs increased by 1.8K
- CAD long 38k vs 33K long last week. Longs increased by 5K
UK virus researchers estimate 250,000 people in Wuhan will have coronavirus in 13 days
It will spread to nearby cities and countries next
A UK expert on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases has published a paper with four colleagues that estimates transmission parameters for the Wuhan coronavirus and it’s terrifying.
Dr Jonathan Read estimates that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan are identified and that an explosion in the number of cases is less than two weeks away.
By February 4, he writes that “our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250,000 (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396).”
Based on travel patterns, his team predicts the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. The countries with the greatest risk of importing it are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
The US 10-year Treasury #yield!
Major indices give up early gains on coronavirus fear
Nasdaq snaps 7 week win streak.
The major indices give up early gains on coronavirus concerns and are ending the day lower. For the week, the NASDAQ index snapped a 7 week winning streak and is ending down on the week. The Dow is in the midst of a four-day losing streak.
The final numbers are showing:
- The S&P index -30.09 points or -0.90% at 3295.45. The high reached 3333.18. The low extended to 3281.53
- The Nasdaq index fell -87.568 points or -0.93% at 9314.91. The high reached 9451.43. The low extended to 9273.23
- The Dow closed down -171 points or -0.58% at 28989.73. The high reached 29288.79. The low extended to 28843.31.
For the week, the major indices all closed in the red:
- Dow industrial average, -1.05%
- S&P index, -0.64%
- NASDAQ index, -0.45%
Apart from the German Dax and the Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, the major global indices end the week negative (see charts below).
Thought For A Day
