The number of deaths surge as well
Wuhan city reports that another 15 people died on Friday, bringing the death toll to 41.
China also reported today that a relatively healthy young man was killed by the virus. That raises the risk that it might be more deadly that previously believed.
The sequence of confirmed cases:
- Jan 17: 41
- Jan 19: 62
- Jan 20: 201
- Jan 21: 291
- Jan 22: 440
- Jan 24: 830
- Jan 25: 1287
There are a dozen or so confirmed cases outside the country, with many more under monitoring. There is one reported case of a man in Vietnam who had no travel history to Wuhan but was a family member of a confirmed case who visited the city. However that means that person-to-person transmission has occurred outside of China.
In addition, 19 provinces reported 1118 new suspected cases with 30 provinces now reporting at least one case.
Australia has now also raised its travel alert for the province of Hubei to its highest level and warns ‘do not travel’ to the area. The first confirmed case in Australia was announced and four cases are suspected.
One better sign is that Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong studied a group of 6 people in a family in Shenzhen and estimates the incubation period is 3-6 days. That’s much shorter than the 14-day worst-case scenario that the CDC floated.
What I find worrisome is that even in China there is a wide dispersion of cities reporting cases. Moreover, when you read about the cases of people who were admitted, it’s evident that they could have been spreading the virus for weeks.
Liu Moumou, male, 58 years old, was transferred to Jinyintan Hospital of the city on January 18, 2020 due to “intermittent fever with cough for 15 days, chest tightness, and gasping for 1 day”. He has a history of hypertension for many years. On admission, the patient had chest tightness, shortness of breath, accelerated heart rate, positive coronavirus nucleic acid test, and was diagnosed with viral pneumonia, respiratory failure, hypertension, and coronary heart disease. After admission, he was treated with high-flow oxygen inhalation, anti-infection, and anti-inflammatory. On January 19, myocardial ischemia complicated with coma and shock. On January 24, he died of multiple organ failure at 2:54.
In total, there have been 41 deaths and 38 who have been cured and discharged.