Trump and Chinese officials sign off on deal
We are also waiting for the deal text, which has been kept under wraps.
Archives of “January 15, 2020” day
rssEuropean shares end mostly lower. FTSE 100 does rise though
UK FTSE 100, +0.23%
The major European indices are ending the session mostly lower. The the exception is the UK’s FTSE 100 which has moved up by 0.23% on the day.
The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, -0.28%
- France’s CAC, -0.2%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.23%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.24%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.69%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower (with the exception of the Portuguese 10 year note):
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit for the day (and just ahead of the ceremonial signing of the US/China phase 1 trade deal):- Spot gold is up $4.25 or 0.28% at $1550.63
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.51 or -0.86% at $57.74
In the US stock market the major indices are higher and trading at record levels:
- S&P index up 14.9 points or 0.46% at 3298.13 (high for the day). It is getting closer to the 3300 level
- NASDAQ index is up 42.84 points or 0.46% at 9294.17. The high reached 9298.82 just short of the 9300 level
- The Dow is up 168 points or 0.58% at 29108.24
In the US debt market, the yields are lower and the yield curve flatter again with the 2 – 10 year spread down to 22.44 basis points from 24.09 basis points at the close yesterday.
Liquidity of the future over the S&P 500.
10% of the richest Americans own 84% of the shares.
Ruble doesnt like government reshuffle
Ruble slides after Russian government resigns
Ruble falls to one week low
Prime Minister Medvedev says the Russian government has submited a resignation and that Putin will decide the makeup of a new government. Separately, Putin appointed Medvedev deputy head of the security council.
The ruble is down about 0.5% on the news.
Earlier today Putin called for a nationwide vote that would distribute power to parliament and the PM and away from the Presidency. That sounds like Putin is giving away power but his term as President expires in 2024 and it would give parliament the power to choose the prime minister.
In the same speech, Putin announced measures to incentivize a higher birth rate. It’s fallen to 1.75 and he announced cash incentives, increased child benefits, hot lunches for kids and grants to mothers of large families.
The USDCHF slides to the lowest level since September 2018
Cracks below the 2019 low at 0.96457
The USDCHF has fell to the lowest level since September 2018. The price today has moved below the August low at 0.96589 and the low from December 31 at 0.96457. The currency continues to strengthen after the US put Switzerland on the watchlist as a currency manipulator in trading yesterday.
If the price is able to stay below the 0.9645 to 0.96589 area, the sellers remain firm control and we can expect further slide to the downside. Looking at the daily chart the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the 2018 low to the 2019 high comes in at 0.95869. That would be a lower target going forward.
OPEC+ reportedly begin consultations to postpone deal decision to June
TASS reports, citing a source familiar with the matter
The source is saying that key OPEC+ countries are discussing on the postponement of the oil output cuts deal decision from March to June, backing up the story from yesterday.
A problem delayed is a problem denied? I reckon Russia may not share that view though.
Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.45% at 23,916.58
Asian equities lose some ground ahead of US-China trade deal signing
The sentiment sort of mirrors the slight climb lower in Wall St during overnight trading, as investors continue to keep their attention on the US-China trade deal signing.
The signing ceremony is scheduled for 1630 GMT and all eyes are on that now with the details of the deal something to watch out for as well. In general, markets are keeping a bit more calm today despite a mild retreat in stocks and US futures.
USD/JPY is trading a little lower just under the 110.00 handle while gold is keeping higher just above $1,550 amid a bit of a mixed mood to start European morning trade.
Economic data coming up in the European session
UK December CPI data in focus today
Good day, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. Markets are keeping more calm after a minor hiccup yesterday over tariff headlines but the main focus remains on the US-China trade deal signing later today.
Major currencies remain little changed thus far as the more steady tones are giving little direction for traders to work with in general. Looking ahead, we’ll have a couple of data points to move things along with the big one being UK inflation data.
0745 GMT – France December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t have much of an impact as it should reaffirm a slight rebound in price pressures last month.
0800 GMT – Spain December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. Similar to the French release, it should just reaffirm a slight rebound in inflation across the region last month.
0930 GMT – UK December CPI figures
0930 GMT – UK December PPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Price pressures in the UK is expected to keep more steady last month, but still below the desired 2% level. I reckon barring any significant drop-off in inflation, the BOE could lean towards staying pat in January but markets may still allude to this as being a reason to cut as well. In my view, post-election data matters more for the BOE so more steady price pressures (for now) should keep the finger off the trigger.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November industrial production
Prior release can be found here. The bounce in German industrial production for November should help give a slight nudge higher in the release here today but overall factory activity remains rather subdued in the euro area towards the end of 2019. A minor data point.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. A general indication of trade conditions in the euro area economy, which is still a bit shaky in general amid slower global activity.
1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage approvals w.e. 10 January
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!