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An Oil ICYMI – Russia, oil majors discuss extending the crude output cut further

Overnight oil news with a report that Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak met with domestic major oil companies on Tuesday

  • Discussions centred on implementing oil production curbs
  • possible extension of the current level of cuts beyond June
Reuters reported the info citing unnamed sources, said no final decision was reached.
Kommersant daily, citing three sources in oil industry, said Russia may keep the current level of cuts until September
I posted a couple of days ago on measures in Russia to try to ease the impact of cuts:
  • Russian President Putin has ordered bail out measures for Russia’s oil industry
Russian energy head honcho Novak:
 Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak

Ruble slides after Russian government resigns

Ruble falls to one week low

Prime Minister Medvedev says the Russian government has submited a resignation and that Putin will decide the makeup of a new government. Separately, Putin appointed Medvedev deputy head of the security council.
The ruble is down about 0.5% on the news.
Earlier today Putin called for a nationwide vote that would distribute power to parliament and the PM and away from the Presidency. That sounds like Putin is giving away power but his term as President expires in 2024 and it would give parliament the power to choose the prime minister.
In the same speech, Putin announced measures to incentivize a higher birth rate. It’s fallen to 1.75 and he announced cash incentives, increased child benefits, hot lunches for kids and grants to mothers of large families.

Look how isolated Russia is . . .

The Probabilities Win Every Time

Columnist David Brooks wrote an interesting article in the New York Times on how to effectively use probabilities:

In 2006, Philip E. Tetlock published a landmark book called “Expert Political Judgment.” While his findings obviously don’t apply to me, Tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions.

But Tetlock is also interested in how people can get better at making forecasts. His subsequent work helped prompt people at one of the government’s most creative agencies, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, to hold a forecasting tournament to see if competition could spur better predictions.

In the fall of 2011, the agency asked a series of short-term questions about foreign affairs, such as whether certain countries will leave the euro, whether North Korea will re-enter arms talks, or whether Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev would switch jobs. They hired a consulting firm to run an experimental control group against which the competitors could be benchmarked. (more…)

Historic defeat for EU as Ukraine returns to Kremlin control

Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is slipping back under Kremlin control. Ukraine’s shock decision to opt for Vladimir Putin’s Russia and pull out of EU talks on the eve of an historic deal is a dramatic upset to the European balance of power.

It is the first major defeat for the EU in its eastward march since the fall of Communism. While the region’s geo-politics remain fluid, the upset may prove as fateful as the move by the Kossack chief Bohdan Khmelnytsky to turn his back on the West and accept Tsarist suzerainty in the 1640s.
“Ukraine’s government suddenly bowed deeply to the Kremlin. The politics of brutal pressure evidently work,” said Sweden’s foreign minister Karl Bildt.
Ukraine’s prime minister, Mykola Azarov, told Ukraine’s parliament that the country has been forced to cancel its trade and pre-accession deal with the EU because Russian sanctions are strangling the economy, “pushing Ukraine to the brink of a huge social crisis.” (more…)

Facebook's Zuckerberg is 'Person of the Year'

Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been named Time magazine’s ‘Person of the Year’ for 2010.

At 26, Zuckerberg has put himself on the map not only as one of the world’s youngest billionaires, but also as a prominent newcomer to the world of philanthropy.

Earlier this year, he pledged $100 million over five years to the Newark, N.J. school system. Now, he’s in the company of media titans Carl Icahn, 74, Barry Diller, 68, and others who have joined Giving Pledge, an effort led by Microsoft founder Bill Gates and investor Warren Buffett to commit the country’s wealthiest people to step up their charitable donations.

Zuckerberg owns about a quarter of Facebook’s shares.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke received the honor last year. The 2008 winner was then-President-elect Barack Obama. The 2007 winner was Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Other previous winners have included Bono, President George W. Bush, and Amazon.com CEO and founder Jeff Bezos.

Time’s ‘Person of the Year’ is the person or thing that has most influenced the culture and the news during the past year for good or for ill.