Archives of “November 2019” month

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The Dow Rose 55 Points Because the U.S. and China Are Talking Trade Turkey

  
Analysis, US Market
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All three main U.S. stock indexes closed with modest gains on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s record highs. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as representatives from both countries made another high-level call on Tuesday. Consumer confidence slipped again in November, but still remains at a relatively high level. In today’s After the Bell, we…

  • watch U.S. and China negotiators push trade talks a step further
  • gauge Trump’s position on Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movements;
  • and check on how American consumers feel in November.

Time to Be Thankful

Stocks edged up again on Tuesday as trade negotiators from the U.S. and China hold another high-level phone call to resolve core issues. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 55.21 points, or 0.20%, to close at 28,121.68. The S&P 500 added 6.88 points, or 0.22%, to finish at 3140.52, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 15.44 points, or 0.18%, to close at 8647.93.

Trump: US in final throes of reaching a trade deal with China

  
Analysis, Politics
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Positive comments

Reuters is carrying comments from Trump:
  • Trump says in final throes on reaching trade deal with CHina
  • Trump says US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong
This is a slightly different language. It’s the first time in a few days the President has been so optimistic.
I’m reminded that the previous line was that they were in the ‘short strokes’. The modest market reaction suggests that this kind of talk isn’t enough alone to boost sentiment.

Ball in US’ court to make reasonable compromises on tariffs — Chinese press

  
  Analysis
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Global Times report

Monday’s phone call between US and Chinese officials send a positive signal about a deal but that China will stick to its core demands including a proportional removal of tariffs, according to a Global Times report.
“[The two sides] achieved consensus on properly addressing relevant issues and agreed to maintain contact over the remaining issues for the phase one trade agreement,” according to a statement released today from the Ministry of Commerce.
While the MOFCOM’s brief statement did not offer details on what had been discussed during the phone call, an expert close to the trade talks said that topics may have include tariff removals, agricultural purchases, a review mechanism for the implementation of a potential agreement as well as arrangements for a face-to-face meeting.

Still despite the positive signs, some Chinese experts stressed that China will stick to its core demands, including proportional removal of existing tariffs and a balanced text of the phase one trade agreement.

“The ball is in the US’ court,” said the expert close to the trade talks who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Expect more details of the call to leak out in the hours ahead.

OPEC mulls extending production cuts for 3-6 months

  
Analysis, Crude

Tass report

The OPEC meeting is on December 5 and earlier in the month there was talk of deeper cuts but that was always a low likelihood and Russia poured cold water on the idea. The aim will be getting to 100% compliance in the countries that are producing above quota.
This report gives a good baseline for what’s expected with 3 months seen as a a modest disappointment and 6 months mildly positive. The much-more interesting story in oil in 2020 will be shale production
Here is the oil chart:
Tass report

China deal remains ‘very close’ after call yesterday between top deputies

  
  Analysis
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Lighthizer spoke with Liu He

Politico reports that a phase one deal remains “very close” because a source believes China will come through with significant concessions on IP and that the sides aren’t too far apart on which tariffs will be removed.
There was a call between the main players Monday night (USTR Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He) so at least talks are continuing toward some type of announcement. Still no word on exactly when such an announcement would take place.
The article was out about 15 mins ago. Read it here.
Update: White House advisor Conway is now out saying some sticking points in discussions remain.
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