Archives of “November 2019” month

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USD/JPY matches the best level since May

  
Analysis, Forex

USD/JPY up 42 pips on the day

USD/JPY up 42 pips on the day
Better economic sentiment and a lower chance the Fed will cut rates are driving a rally in USD/JPY today and breaking technical resistance.
The next headline on the pair that you’re likely to see is it hitting the highest since May. It’s matched that level so far as it sits at 109.48.
Watch out for a run on buy stops if the pair breaks higher. Stocks are certainly poised for a strong close.

Bitcoin rises 6% in bounce-back day

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

Bitcoin up $500

Bitcoin up $500
Bitcoin hit a six-month low to start the week but is bouncing back today in a nearly $500 rally to $7600.
One catalyst appears to be a report saying the Swiss government is working on laws that are more positive for blockchain.
Another theory is that recent selling was driven by the sale of Bitcoin from a theft in China and that’s dried up now so the dip-buyers are stepping in.
Technically, it’s undoubtedly oversold in the short-term but the break below the October lows is concerning. We could get a rebound to $8000 or $8500 before the selling kicks back in.

EUR/USD nears the November low

  
Analysis, Forex
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Keep an eye out for stops

EUR/USD is at the lows of the day as the US dollar gets a broad bid. The pair is down 27 pips on the day to 1.0994.
The level to watch is 1.0989, which as the November 13 low. Watch for stops if it gives way. A break below would mark the lowest since October 9.
Keep an eye out for stops
There are $1.1 billion in options running off at 1.1000 at the top of the hour, among others.

Global stock market rally has further to run in 2020 – Reuters poll

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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But much depends on the US-China trade war still

Poll

The bias has turned more favourable in the most recent poll with a slim majority of respondents (53/102) viewing that risks to the outlook are now skewed more to the upside.

In comparison, just three months ago, a clear majority of respondents (69/97) viewed that risks to the outlook were skewed more to the downside instead.
A lot of this of course owes to the more optimistic US-China trade rhetoric, as both countries look to move closer towards a trade truce by the end of this year.
Among those who answered an additional question in the poll, 50 respondents said the bull run in the stock market will end within a year with 40 respondents saying that it would within the next two years.
That shows that sentiment is leaning more towards the bull run still going strong although I reckon its strength may not be as what we are seeing this year.
I mean with stretched valuations, flagging global growth and more political uncertainty i.e. US elections all at play next year, the S&P 500 may find it tough to post another 25% year like this one and so will its peers.

EUR/USD sits slightly lower near 1.10, what levels to look out for today?

  
Analysis, Forex
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The dollar is keeping a little more firm in the European morning so far

EUR/USD H1 27-11

And that is helping to see EUR/USD linger near the 1.1000 handle with the low today reaching 1.1003. Sellers remain in near-term control of the pair but trading may be a bit more tepid for now as we look towards a barrage of data to come from the US later.
That will be the key risk event for the dollar and also for EUR/USD in trading today.
But let’s take a look at what are the key levels that buyers and sellers may look to lean on should we see price action move around later on.
The 1.1000 level in itself is already a key one to watch but add in large expiries rolling off today around 1.0995-00, it only makes the figure level more of a magnet for now.
Below that, the 14 November low @ 1.0989 will be a notable one to watch as well. A fall below that will accelerate momentum to the downside for sellers.
Meanwhile, for buyers, any move higher needs to work towards breaking the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1032 first before challenging the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1049.
A break above those two levels will see buyers reclaim near-term control before potentially moving towards a test of the 100-day moving average @ 1.1080 with further swing region resistance seen around 1.1090-00 next.
Those will be the key technical levels to watch out for now but how price action will play around these levels will depend on how the slate of data from the US plays out later today.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.28% at 23,437.77

  
Analysis, Global Indices

The Nikkei continues its good run amid mixed mood in Asian equities

Nikkei 27-11

Japanese stocks push higher again today, helped by continued optimism in the US-China trade rhetoric with US officials claiming that a deal is “very close” now. And that is also helping to keep markets cautiously optimistic over the past few days.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are both down by 0.1% though – owing to weaker Chinese data as industrial profits slumped to a eight-year low.
The overall risk mood remains more balanced though with US futures and bond yields sitting more flat on the day. USD/JPY is mildly higher at 109.16 with the dollar holding light gains as we begin European morning trade.
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