Archives of “November 18, 2019” day

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Bundesbank: No reason to fear that Germany would slide into recession

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by the Bundesbank in its latest monthly report

Germany
  • Domestic economy will probably continue to provide momentum
  • Manufacturing downturn could be leveling off
  • The slowdown is not likely to intensify markedly
  • The slowdown will probably continue in Q4 2019
  • The overall economic output could more or less stagnate
I think the thing that stands out the most for me here is the way that they are communicating the message rather than the message itself.
Take note of the words used: probably, likely, could. Now, that’s not exactly what I would call exuding confidence, not even the slightest. It sort of contradicts their main statement of having “no reason” to fear a recession.

EUR/GBP eases to fresh six-month lows, key support levels eyed

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/GBP hits lowest level since May, moves closer towards key support region

EUR/GBP D1 18-11

The pound is continuing to extend its good form against the euro after a strong October month with price now easing towards key support levels around 0.8476 to 0.8529.
Sellers stay firmly in control of the pair with the euro sitting in limbo over the past few weeks while the pound keeps firm amid more positive Brexit momentum since last month.
As the pair eases towards the key support region mentioned above, it starts to become more of a technical play (even more than it already has).
A firm break below the region mentioned above will see price accelerate further towards the downside. But perhaps with cable also struggling to break 1.30, EUR/GBP may also find a near-term bottom for now until we get further pricing moves for the UK election.

FOMC October monetary policy meeting minutes due this week – preview

  
  Analysis
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Coming up on Wednesday 20 November 2019 at 1900 GMT

  • US Federal Reserve meeting minutes
These are likely to further add  to the Fed’s view that the downside risks to the US economy have pulled back a little
  • Expect to hear of data dependence
  • Also expect to hear from the minutes that it’d take a “material reassessment” of the economic outlook for the Fed to move on another interest rate cut – this was the key takeaway comment from Powell.
Coming up on Wednesday 20 November 2019 at 1900 GMT 

FT reports that the EU may give the derivatives industry and extension on Brexit

  
  Analysis
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Financial Times says the European Union is readying moves to offer an extra year to the financial derivates industry to prepare for Brexit

  • Valdis Dombrovskis, vice-president of the European Commission, said on Friday that contingency plans for accessing UK-based clearing houses would have to be extended beyond the current March 2020 end date because the EU financial services industry would not have alternatives in place in time.
That’s the in a nutshell version of the report – here is the link for more (FT may be gated)
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