Archives of “October 2019” month

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Bitcoin spikes higher…

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

Moves up over $1000

The price of bitcoin on point basis spike higher and is trading up nearly $1000 on the day on the Coinbase exchange.
Moves up over $1000
Looking at the hourly chart above, the digital current a 1st moved above the September 30 swing low at $7701 and then trumped that by moving above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at $7808 and $7918 respectively.  Sellers turned buyers and the run higher was in full motion.
What now?
Staying on the hourly chart, the September 26 high at $8659.40 and the 50% retracement of the move down from the September 20 high at $8837.79 are the next targets. That 50% retracement also is close to the swing hi from October 12 at $8826.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the price is also approaching its 200 day moving average at Coinbase at $8885.65.
Bitcoin on the daily chart

US stocks recover from earlier losses and close higher. S&P index closes just below record levels

  
Analysis, US Market

Major indices end higher on the week

The US major stock indices recovered from earlier losses. The move higher was helped by positive comments about US China trade progress.
On the day the S&P index moved above the high close level at 3025.86 intraday, but fell short of the all-time high level at 3027.98.  The close is just below those levels at 3022.20
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index rose 11.96 points or 0.4% at 3022.25
  • NASDAQ index rose 57.33 points or 0.70% at 2843.12
  • Dow industrial average rose 150.36 points or 0.56% at 26955.89
for the week, the major indices closed higher:
  • S&P index rose 1.21%
  • NASDAQ index rose 1.90%
  • Dow industrial average rose 0.69%

So close, but if there is to be a new record close it will have to wait until next week for the S&P index

Next week brings the FOMC and BOJ meetings – forecast range for USD/JPY

  
Analysis, Forex
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A note via MUFG on the yen for the week ahead, analysts looking for 107/111 for USD/JPY.

On the Federal Open Market Committee meeting:
  • USD/JPY has already priced in a rate cut by the FOMC to some degree, so would not react much to a cut. If the Fed does defer on cutting rates, then the initial reaction would likely be USD buying, but stock price weakness would likely cap a rise by USD/JPY
And, on the Bank of Japan:
  • BoJ will maintain current monetary policy
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda commented in an interview that he expects a rate cut, so if the BoJ stands firm on policy, JPY may strengthen slightly but probably not continue. But if the BoJ does make some sort of policy change, JPY would initially weaken but not continue to do so because of concerns about side effects and continuity, and at some point USDJPY would lose steam. 
And, of course on a big driver:
  • Ultimately Brexit continues to loom and there will likely be little sense of direction despite some volatility.
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FOMC on the 30th, Wednesday next week.
BOJ on the 31st, Thursday next week.

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – almost bare

  
  Analysis
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2350GMT will bring data on weekly flows of securities (stocks/bonds bought/sold) from Japan.

Upon release these tend to have a negligible impact on forex (unless there is some reason for the market to be focused on them at the time).
Apart from some info due from South Korea and Singapore that’s about it.
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