A note via MUFG on the yen for the week ahead, analysts looking for 107/111 for USD/JPY.
On the Federal Open Market Committee meeting:
- USD/JPY has already priced in a rate cut by the FOMC to some degree, so would not react much to a cut. If the Fed does defer on cutting rates, then the initial reaction would likely be USD buying, but stock price weakness would likely cap a rise by USD/JPY
And, on the Bank of Japan:
- BoJ will maintain current monetary policy
- BoJ Governor Kuroda commented in an interview that he expects a rate cut, so if the BoJ stands firm on policy, JPY may strengthen slightly but probably not continue. But if the BoJ does make some sort of policy change, JPY would initially weaken but not continue to do so because of concerns about side effects and continuity, and at some point USDJPY would lose steam.
And, of course on a big driver:
- Ultimately Brexit continues to loom and there will likely be little sense of direction despite some volatility.
—
FOMC on the 30th, Wednesday next week.
BOJ on the 31st, Thursday next week.
