The headline is the in summary version of a client note from UBS on the US dollar.
Its a detailed look at the US dollar trend, but adding to the to the headline points in brief.
When and how the dollar might turn is anyone’s guess
- longterm dollar trend … As of last month, it was still levying upward pressure … did not appear to be waning materially
- medium term trend … duration of 2-5 years … more or less mirrors intra business cycle growth surges and slowdowns
- shorter term one that averages about a year…. seems to relate to shocks caused by politics and supply disruptions to commodities … a modest dollar drag today … could reflect the … trade war coming home to roost and the drag on Chinese leading indicators passing, as fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and modest credit easing have begun to filter through