Archives of “October 15, 2019” day

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USD up trend is 99 months old soon. Is it over? No, another 12-24 months still to come

  
Analysis, Forex
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The headline is the in summary version of a client note from UBS on the US dollar.

Its a detailed look at the US dollar trend, but adding to the to the headline points in brief.
When and how the dollar might turn is anyone’s guess
  • longterm dollar trend …  As of last month, it was still levying upward pressure … did not appear to be waning materially
  • medium term trend  …  duration of 2-5 years … more or less mirrors intra business cycle growth surges and slowdowns
  • shorter term one that averages about a year…. seems to relate to shocks caused by politics and supply disruptions to commodities … a modest dollar drag today … could reflect the … trade war coming home to roost and the drag on Chinese leading indicators passing, as fiscal stimulus from tax cuts and modest credit easing have begun to filter through

Brexit – slightly more positive reports coming out on deal progress

  
  Analysis

The ebb and flow of Brexit indications continues, this latest via the UK Telegraph

Says the report:
  • Brexit deal appears to be taking shape
  • sources on both sides said a positive day of negotiations had yielded a potential solution to the Northern Irish border problem
  • was “cautious optimism” that a narrow path to a deal could now be appearing
  • marked shift in tone from the downbeat assessment from the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Sunday
GBP up a few tics

US stocks end the day with modest declines

  
Analysis, US Market

Semi holiday trading leads to modest price action

The US major stock indices are ending the day with modest declines. The Columbus Day holiday limited price action.  Government offices and agencies were closed as was the bond market. However the US stock market and futures markets were open.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index -4.12 points or -0.14% at 2966.15
  • The NASDAQ index -8.391 points or -0.10% at 8048.64
  • The Dow industrial average is down -29.23 points or -0.11% at 26787.30.
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