Archives of “October 2, 2019” day

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Pres. Trump sounds off….

  
  Analysis
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…Stocks are not liking the optics of it all

Pres. Trump is sounding off as he defends himself in the way he knows how. Below are a sampling of the recent tweets:
...Stocks are not liking the optics of it all
He is also on the wires saying:
  • He thinks the whistleblower should be protected if he is a legitimate whistleblower
But adds:
  • Person who provided whistleblower information is a spy
What does it have to do with the market?
Stocks continue to suffer, as things are seemingly more and more in disarray.
The S&P is currently down 56 points or -1.9% at 2884.30. The NASDAQ is down 142 points or -1.8% at 7766.  Both are near lows for the day.

S&P index

Gold prices remain elevated at plus $21.50 or 1.45% at $1500.50.
The USD is mixed
  • The USDJPY is seeing the safe haven flows and trades near lows for the day
  • The USDCHF, which was up near 90 pips earlier after weaker CPI inflation, has moved back to mid range.
  • The EURUSD moved to new highs on some dollar selling
  • The GBPUSD has also recovered (dollar selling) after being lower on Brexit concerns earlier.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

  
Analysis, US Market
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Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

European shares are beaten down. German DAX falls -2.5%. France’s CAC -2.9%

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Ouch.  European shares take a beating.

The European major indices are closed and the provisional closes are not looking good. The major indices are all beaten down by 2%-3%  declines.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -2.5%
  • France’s CAC, -2.9%
  • UK’s FTSE, -3.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.8%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session higher, but off the highest levels of the day.  Below is a snapshot of the current yields, changes and high low yields.
Ouch.  European shares take a beating.
US stocks are also down sharply and trading near lows.
  • S&P index, -1.91%
  • NASDAQ index, -1.75%
  • Dow industrial average, -2.0%

In other markets:

  • spot gold is surging and back above the $1500 level. The price is up $22.34 or 1.51% at $1501.50.
  • WTI crude oil futures is trading down $1.35 on expectations of slower growth. That is down 2.5% at $52.28. The inventory data showed a higher build then expectations today
In the forex, the JPY remains the strongest currency on flight to the relative safety of the JPY. The CAD has taken over as the weakest.  The USDCAD is now trading back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3288.

JPMorgan on impeachment and the markets

  
  Analysis

Scanning a few bits an pieces and noticed some comments from JPM

  • “Despite the drama this process will inject into the rest of the President’s first term, there is little justification for altering asset allocation now, unless one thinks that this issue is the decisive one that tips the US economy into sub-trend growth and/or a profits recession,”  
  • “To us, impeachment more seems yet another constraint on returns over the next year, given the newer uncertainties created around international and domestic policy.”
More at this link
Scanning a few bits an pieces and noticed some comments from JPM

Report North Korea appears to have launched another missile

  
Analysis, Politics
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Japan Coast Guard

North Korean missile launches have been a regular occurenceoccurrence ever since Trump arranged the deal to have them stopped. Go figure.
Was a time when launches were a yen positive, but little response to the repeated launches seem to have become a feature.

Japan chief cabinet secretary Suga:

  • North Korean missile landed in EEZ
  • Off Shimane prefecture
Japan chief cabinet secretary Suga:
EEZ is Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone
More on the launch:
  • North Korea launched unidentified projectiles on Wednesday morning (local)
  • from North of Wonsan, Kangwon Province
  • towards the Sea of Japan (AKA the East Sea)

Crypto news – Visa, Mastercard, reconsider involvement in Facebook’s Libra network

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
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The Wall Street Journal report second thoughts from big payment companies on the cryptocurrency.

  • Visa, Mastercard and other key financial partners that signed on to help build and maintain the Libra payments network are reconsidering their involvement following backlash from U.S. and European government officials, according to people familiar with the matter. 
  • Wary of attracting regulatory scrutiny, executives of some of Libra’s backers have declined Facebook’s requests to publicly support the project, the people said.
  • Their reluctance has Facebook scrambling to keep Libra on track. 
WSJ is gated, but here is the link if you can access it
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Meanwhile, BTC price chart update:The Wall Street Journal report second thoughts from big payment companies on the cryptocurrency.

UK PM Johnson speech extracts – wants to get Brexit done and ‘move on’

  
Analysis, Politics
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BJ is giving a speech Wednesday UK time to the Conservatives’ annual conference
  • says UK will leave on October 31 with or without a deal
  • will say his offer is his final Brexit offer to the European Union
  • if not acceptable to the EU the UK will not negotiate further
  • says his plan is a  “fair and reasonable compromise”.
“Let’s get Brexit done on October 31 so in 2020 our country can move on.”
Note:
  • UK parliament has passed a law that requires the PM to request a Brexit delay if he fails to secure an acceptable deal at an EU summit on October 17.
  • The EU wants “legal and operational” proposals for the changes Johnson wants to a deal his predecessor Theresa May negotiated with the bloc last year

US major indices ending near session lows

  
Analysis, US Market
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Not a good day for the major stock indices

The major US stock indices were spooked by weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data . Shortly after the data came out, the major indices turned from being up to being down.

The momentum continued through the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -36.56 points or -1.23% in 2940.18. That is just off the session low at 2938.70. The pair fell below its 50 day moving average today which had been holding support for most of September. That MA comes in at 2948 area.  Stay below going forward keeps the bears in control.  The 100 day MA is down at 2925.50 currently.  A move below that level increases the bearish bias for the pair
  • NASDAQ index, -90.654 points or -1.3% at 7908.68. The low for the day reach 7906.293. For the Nasdaq index, it tumbled below its 100 day moving average at 7963.81 today.  The next major target would be its 200 day moving average. However that is still a bit away at 7704.411.
  • Dow fell -343.79 points of -1.28% at 26573.04.. The low for the index reached 26562.22.
Selling with broad-based today with all the major sectors moving lower.
Some of the major losers today included:
  • Charles Schwab, -9.73%. They lowered commissions $0 on trades
  • DuPont, -4.73%
  • Schlumberger, -4.36%
  • 3M, -3.67%
  • General Motors, -3.66%
  • Slack, -3.46%
  • Cisco, -3.36%
  • Caterpillar, -3.14%
  • Morgan Stanley, -3.05%
  • Ford motors, -2.84%
  • Wells Fargo, -2.76%
  • Fed ex, -2.72%
  • McDonald’s, -2.64%
  • Bank of America, -2.50%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.37%
  • Twitter, -2.33%
  • Goldman Sachs, -2.20%
Some winners on the day included
  • Phillip Morris, +2.52%
  • Tesla, +1.59%
  • Visa, +1.34%
  • Box, Inc, +1.15%
  • Wynn resorts, +1.11%
  • Netflix, +0.73%
  • Papa John’s +0.42%
  • Coca-Cola, +0.37%
  • Apple, +0.25%
  • Pepsi, +0.20%
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