Archives of “June 2019” month

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White House trade advisor Navarro: Either we get a great deal with China, or we don’t

  
Analysis, Politics

He makes it a binary decision but what is “great”?

Peter Navarro is on the wires saying:

  • We either get a great deal with China or we don’t
So what he says is a binary decision. It’s one or the other. What we we don’t know is what “great” is.
Having said that, what we do know is if a deal is done (whatever it is), it will be “Great!”. It will be the greatest deal since the great USMCA deal.
Navarro now adds:
  • China to devaluing currency to offset tariffs
  • level of additional China tariffs not decided yet

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR and JPY shorts trimmed

  
Analysis, Forex

Weekly Forex futures that noncommercial positioning data for the week ending June 18, 2019

  • EUR short 52K vs 87K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 35K
  • GBP short 53K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • JPY short 17K vs 45K short last week. Short trimmed by 28K
  • CHF short 15k vs 25k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 10K
  • AUD short 65k vs 63k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 24K vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • CAD short 38K vs 33K short last week.  Shorts increased by 5K
  • Prior week

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts were trimmed by a decent 35K. The position short was as high as 100K a month or so ago.  Now 1/2 that position
  • JPY shorts were also trimeed significantly in the week.
  • GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD shorts on the otherhand were increased.

Major indices end the up and down in the red.

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow gives up gains and ends in the red.  Nasdaq the worst performer

The major stock indices are ending the up-and-down session in the red. The Dow, that was higher for most the day, closed near it’s lows and gave up the gains.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -3.72 points or -0.13% at 2950.46. The index closed yesterday at an all-time high. Today, the intraday high was a new record at 2964.15, but the close was not
  • Nasdaq index -19.633 points or -0.24% at 8031.70. The high reached 8073.02. The low extended to 8011.199. For the NASDAQ index this week, the high price reached 8088.88 on Thursday. That was still below its all-time high close at 8163.99.
  • The Dow did move above its all-time high close level at 26828.39 intraday (the high reached 26907.37). However, the index gave up the gains and closed below that all time high level at 26719.13, down -34.04 points

For the week, the major indices were higher:

  • S&P index, +2.2%
  • NASDAQ index +3.01%
  • Dow, +2.41%

Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari make case for rate cut

  
  Analysis
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Slowing growth momentum and the lack of inflationary pressure are fuelling the case among Federal Reserve policymakers that a rate cut may be necessary this year in order to stimulate the economy.

A duo of Fed officials — St Louis Fed president James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari — on Friday cited rising global uncertainty as a reason the US central bank should take immediate action to lower rates.

At its latest policy meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to hold rates steady but signalled a strong possibility of cutting them this year.

Mr Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the Fed board, was the lone dissenter. He said on Friday he pushed for a quarter-percentage point cut at the meeting in order to safeguard against weaker growth, tepid inflation and an increasingly volatile environment.

“I believe that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this time would provide insurance against further declines in expected inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. Even if a sharper-than-expected slowdown does not materialise, a rate cut would help promote a more rapid return of inflation and inflation expectations to target,” he said in a brief statement posted on his bank’s website.

Mr Kashkari, a non-voting member of the FOMC, went even further. In an essay published on Friday, he said he argued at this week’s meeting for a 50 bps cut in order to “re-anchor” inflation expectations. (more…)

European shares end the day mixed

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Some up and some down to end the trading week

The European markets are closed and the major indices are ending the week with mixed results today.
The numbers are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.13%
  • France’s CAC, -0.13%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.23%
  • Spain’s Ibex, unchanged
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.14%

For the week, the major indices are ending higher:

  • German DAX, +2.01%
  • France’s CAC, +2.99%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.84%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.17%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +3.77%

Bitcoin eyes $10K. Above the 38.2% of the move down from the all-time high

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

$10,000 in traders view

The price of bitcoin on Coinbase is currently trading up about $228 at $9789. The high reached $9929. The low extended to $9460.97.  The $10K level is in traders sites.  The price has not traded above the $10,000 level since March 8, 2018 on Coinbase.
$10,000 in traders view
Technically, the price has moved above the 38.2% of the tumble from teh December 2017 high (at $19891.99) to the December 2018 low (at $3128.89).   That level comes in at $9532.39.   That level is the closest risk level on the daily chart for longs now.  This week’s move above that level is good news for the buyers.  Moving back below would not be so great.
The digital currency today, did disappoint by stalling ahead of the May 5, 2018 high at $9948.12. That level is the first upside target before the $10,000 level.
The price of Bitcoin moved first above the $10000 back on November 29, 2017.  The price traded above and below the key level for a few days. On December 2, 2017, the price traded above the level for the day and did not look back until falling below the level on January 17th 2018. In the meantime it raced (and I mean raced) to the all time high.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the digital currency moved above a topside trend line earlier today AND held corrections down to that broken line. That trend line comes in at $9670 currently.  That level is the closest risk level on that chart. A move below would tilt a little of the bias back down. However, it will take a move back below the 38.2% on the daily at the $9532.39 to hurt the bias more.
Bitcoin on the hourly chart.

Trump says he stopped attack on Iran because it would not have been proportional

  
Analysis, Politics

Trump comments

  • More sanctions on Iran added late yesterday
  • Says he is in no hurry on Iran
  • Iran can never have nuclear weapons
The Trump administration leaked yesterday that the President halted the attack.
Iran said the drone it shot down yesterday was accompanied by a P-8 spy plane that also violated its airspace. The airforce commander said they chose not to target that plane because it was occupied with 35 crewmen.

US gasoline prices jump 3.5% after massive fire at Philadelphia refinery

  
  Analysis

Explosion points to major shutdown at 335K bpd facility

Explosion points to major shutdown at 335K bpd facility
A fire at a Philadelphia refinery led to a massive explosion that sent shockwaves throughout the city at 4:20 am on Friday.
The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery is the largest and oldest refinery on the US East Coast, producing 335K bpd at max capacity. It emerged from bankruptcy last year but has continued to struggle. This might be the nail in the coffin.
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