Archives of “June 5, 2019” day
rssTrump: China and Mexico both want to make a deal with the US
Comments from Trump:
- If Mexico doesn’t take steps to control migrants, the tariffs will take place
- I think they want to make a deal
- Mexico can stop the migrants
- We will see what happens today on Mexico talks
European stocks rise modestly on the day
US stocks back higher after dipping into the red
- German DAX, +0.1%
- France’s CAC, +0.46%
- UK’s FTSE, +0.08%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB bucked the trend and is closing down -0.4%
- the S&P index of 12.72 points or 0.45% at 2816.0
- The NASDAQ index of 25 points or 0.34% at 7552
- The Dow is up 148 points or 0.59% at 25480
Gold 1month 25D Risk Reversal highest since 7th Jan (orange)
World Bank lowers its global growth forecast for 2019 to 2.6% (from 2.9%)
Forecasts from the World Bank slashed, they are citing the impacts of trade wars.
- There’s been a tumble in business confidence
- a deepening slowdown in global trade
- and sluggish investment in emerging and developing economies
- this June update is worse at 2.6%
- All six global regions, East Asia and the Pacific; Europe and Central Asia; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and North Africa; South Asia; and sub-Saharan Africa have lower forecasts.
- global economy’s growth will be the weakest since 2016
- trade growth on track to be the weakest since the GFC
- other factors – financial market stresses, suboptimal business environments in many countries, and economies that were already slowing because of cyclical factors
Oil – private data shows a surprise build in headline inventory
The private survey data ahead of official figures due for release tomorrow morning (US time)
Three things to watch in this week’s ECB – Nomura
What to watch out for in this week’s ECB meeting
Nomura Research discusses its expectations around this week’s ECB June policy meeting on Thursday.
“Our economists outlined in their preview 1) a possible decision on the introduction of a tiering system, 2) TLTRO details and 3) a forecast update, will be major focuses at this week’s meeting. The ECB has already committed to keep its low rate unchanged at least until end-2019, and amid fragile risk sentiment, the ECB’s decisions may not change the mid-term EUR trend, in our view. Nonetheless, the Bank’s decisions can have different implications on EUR-crosses,” Nomura
EUR’s reactions against USD and JPY will likely be muted though, as movements in yields and risk sentiment can work in opposite directions for these crosses. Thus, we believe EUR trades against the commodity and Scandinavian currencies would be better trades into the ECB meeting in G10 space. If the ECB wants to avoid more proper easing measures, such as the restart of QE and deeper negative rates, at a later stage, the Bank may want to avoid a major disappointment from an announcement on TLTRO’s details.
Then, TLTRO conditions could be generous, and we believe tactical EUR/SEK short positions remain attract.. We also maintain our CAD/NOK short and EUR/GBP long exposure,” Nomura adds.
US stocks finish at the highs in biggest rally in five months
US stocks rally 2%
- S&P 500 up 59 points (or 2.1%) to 2803
- Nasdaq up 2.7%
- DJIA up 2.1%
- Toronto TSX up 0.8%