rss

Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari make case for rate cut

Slowing growth momentum and the lack of inflationary pressure are fuelling the case among Federal Reserve policymakers that a rate cut may be necessary this year in order to stimulate the economy.

A duo of Fed officials — St Louis Fed president James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari — on Friday cited rising global uncertainty as a reason the US central bank should take immediate action to lower rates.

At its latest policy meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to hold rates steady but signalled a strong possibility of cutting them this year.

Mr Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the Fed board, was the lone dissenter. He said on Friday he pushed for a quarter-percentage point cut at the meeting in order to safeguard against weaker growth, tepid inflation and an increasingly volatile environment.

“I believe that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this time would provide insurance against further declines in expected inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. Even if a sharper-than-expected slowdown does not materialise, a rate cut would help promote a more rapid return of inflation and inflation expectations to target,” he said in a brief statement posted on his bank’s website.

Mr Kashkari, a non-voting member of the FOMC, went even further. In an essay published on Friday, he said he argued at this week’s meeting for a 50 bps cut in order to “re-anchor” inflation expectations. (more…)

European shares end the day mixed

Some up and some down to end the trading week

The European markets are closed and the major indices are ending the week with mixed results today.
The numbers are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.13%
  • France’s CAC, -0.13%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.23%
  • Spain’s Ibex, unchanged
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.14%

For the week, the major indices are ending higher:

  • German DAX, +2.01%
  • France’s CAC, +2.99%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.84%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.17%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +3.77%

Bitcoin eyes $10K. Above the 38.2% of the move down from the all-time high

$10,000 in traders view

The price of bitcoin on Coinbase is currently trading up about $228 at $9789. The high reached $9929. The low extended to $9460.97.  The $10K level is in traders sites.  The price has not traded above the $10,000 level since March 8, 2018 on Coinbase.
$10,000 in traders view
Technically, the price has moved above the 38.2% of the tumble from teh December 2017 high (at $19891.99) to the December 2018 low (at $3128.89).   That level comes in at $9532.39.   That level is the closest risk level on the daily chart for longs now.  This week’s move above that level is good news for the buyers.  Moving back below would not be so great.
The digital currency today, did disappoint by stalling ahead of the May 5, 2018 high at $9948.12. That level is the first upside target before the $10,000 level.
The price of Bitcoin moved first above the $10000 back on November 29, 2017.  The price traded above and below the key level for a few days. On December 2, 2017, the price traded above the level for the day and did not look back until falling below the level on January 17th 2018. In the meantime it raced (and I mean raced) to the all time high.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, the digital currency moved above a topside trend line earlier today AND held corrections down to that broken line. That trend line comes in at $9670 currently.  That level is the closest risk level on that chart. A move below would tilt a little of the bias back down. However, it will take a move back below the 38.2% on the daily at the $9532.39 to hurt the bias more.
Bitcoin on the hourly chart.

Trump says he stopped attack on Iran because it would not have been proportional

Trump comments

  • More sanctions on Iran added late yesterday
  • Says he is in no hurry on Iran
  • Iran can never have nuclear weapons
The Trump administration leaked yesterday that the President halted the attack.
Iran said the drone it shot down yesterday was accompanied by a P-8 spy plane that also violated its airspace. The airforce commander said they chose not to target that plane because it was occupied with 35 crewmen.

US gasoline prices jump 3.5% after massive fire at Philadelphia refinery

Explosion points to major shutdown at 335K bpd facility

Explosion points to major shutdown at 335K bpd facility
A fire at a Philadelphia refinery led to a massive explosion that sent shockwaves throughout the city at 4:20 am on Friday.
The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery is the largest and oldest refinery on the US East Coast, producing 335K bpd at max capacity. It emerged from bankruptcy last year but has continued to struggle. This might be the nail in the coffin.

Eurozone June flash manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs 48.0 expected

Latest data released by Markit – 21 June 2019

  • Prior 47.7
  • Services PMI 53.4 vs 53.0 expected
  • Prior 52.9
  • Composite PMI 52.1 vs 52.0 expected
  • Prior 51.8
The overall prints here are more-or-less within expectations as the composite reading risses to a seven-month high. That said, aside from a minor bump in services, manufacturing activity remains more or less unchanged to May in the euro area as a whole so there isn’t much in the “big picture” data here to suggest a meaningful rebound in economic conditions.
EUR/USD holds steady still at 1.1307 currently after being buoyed by the French and German releases earlier in the day.

Trump reportedly gave overnight warning of an imminent attack on Iran

Reuters reports

US Iran
  • Says that Trump’s message to Iran said “we don’t want war but talks”
  • Also gave Iran a deadline to start talks
The report notes that Trump gave Iran “a limited period of time” to respond to the message and Iran’s immediate response was a stark warning over “regional and international consequences” if there was any US military action. It is said that Iran’s supreme leader was also against “any kind of talks” with the US at this point in time.
Yup, as such, expect the tensions to rage on between the two countries over the coming days/weeks and that will remain a risk for markets – oil in particular.
Go to top