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Paul Ciana, New Frontiers in Technical Analysis (Book Review )

  
  Education
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New FrontiersThe six chapters in this book are written by six different authors: “Evidence of the Most Popular Technical Indicators” (Paul Ciana), “Everything Is Relative Strength Is Everything” (Julius de Kempenaer), “Applying Seasonality and Erlanger Studies” (Philip B. Erlanger), “Kase StatWare and Studies” (Cynthia A. Kase), “Rules-Based Trading and Market Analysis Using Simplified Market Profile” (Andrew Kezeli), and “Advanced Trading Methods” (Rick Knox).

Ciana provides some fascinating data about the preferences of those who use the Bloomberg Professional Service. For instance, Europe opts for log charts 47% of the time and Asia only 9% of the time. Asia prefers candlestick charts, the Americas bar charts. Worldwide the most popular technical indicators (excluding moving averages) are RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands (BOLL), stochastics (STO), directional movement index (DMI), Ichimoku (GOC), and volume at time (VAT). RSI is the clear winner, with a 44.4% worldwide preference; MACD comes in second at 22%. Some indicators have geographical ties. GOC has a 10.8% popularity rating in Asia as opposed to 2.5% in the Americas and 2.8% in Europe. VAT has a 5.3% rating in the Americas and only 1.8% in Europe and 1.6% in Asia.

VAT, for those who are unfamiliar with it, is something of a seasonal indicator. For instance, “from a historical perspective, VAT considers the volume that has occurred on that day over the past X years to create the average for that day. … From an intraday perspective, VAT creates an average of volume from the actual volume that occurred during that time-slice for the past X days. In both applications VAT can be projected into the future to get an idea of expected volume.” (p. 37)

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China greasing economy with $55bn in tax breaks

  
Analysis, Education
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China’s State Council on Wednesday approved 380 billion yuan ($55.1 billion) in tax relief that will mainly favor farmers and small businesses in a move that is seen as both economic and political.

The second large-scale tax cut to follow last year’s comes as China’s economy is forecast to slow down in the latter half of 2017, during which the Communist Party will convene its 19th National Congress and reshuffle top leadership.

China will modify its value-added tax this July by removing the 13% bracket while retaining the 6%, 11% and 17% tiers. The 13% rate currently applies to farm products and natural gas, but they will move to the 11% category. Farmers as well as households that purchase rice and vegetables will likely benefit from this change.

For smaller companies, those that pay 300,000 yuan or less in annual taxable revenue qualify for preferential tax treatment. The ceiling will be lifted to 500,000 yuan. Furthermore, small businesses and startups will be allowed to deduct 75% of research and development costs, up from 50%. These tax breaks will remain in effect until the end of 2019.

The Chinese government enacted about 500 billion yuan worth of corporate tax cuts in 2016. Helped also by a surge in infrastructure spending, the real economy grew 6.9% during the January-March period this year, marking the second quarter of economic acceleration. However, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, has been gradually raising market interest rates in order to rein in the real estate bubble. (more…)

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