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Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019

  
  Analysis
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The key reports this week are August New Home sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

—– Monday, Sept 23rd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

—– Tuesday, Sept 24th —–
 

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July 2018. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

—– Wednesday, Sept 25th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

 

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 665 thousand SAAR, up from 635 thousand in July.

—– Thursday, Sept 26th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 211 thousand initial claims, up from 208 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.0%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.6% increase in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.

—– Friday, Sept 27th —–

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 92.0.
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-22-2019.html#ufpCwOoLSeldtU2e.99

China delegation cancels US farm trip after trade talks wrap

  
  Analysis
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A Chinese trade delegation is heading back to Beijing earlier than scheduled, having canceled a planned visit to U.S. farms after mid-level trade talks wrapped in Washington.

The sudden itinerary change, confirmed Friday by the Montana Farm Bureau Federation, is putting a damper on U.S.-China trade optimism, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 200 points.

The Chinese officials skipping the farm visit, led by Vice Minister for Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Jun, were part of the delegation in the U.S. for preliminary trade talks, ahead of cabinet-level negotiations to take place in Washington next month.

In a brief statement Friday, the Office of U.S. Trade Representative sounded a positive note on the talks.”These discussions were productive, and the United States looks forward to welcoming a delegation from China for principal-level meetings in October,” the statement said.

High hopes were set for trade talks this week in Washington, which came after both sides softened trade tensions this month with such gestures as tariff exemptions and delays.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue had told reporters on Thursday that the delegation would visit American farms next week.

President Donald Trump had also said earlier this week that China was making large quantities of agricultural purchases from the U.S.

“They are starting to buy our farm products big league,” he said in a tweet Tuesday.

At a White House press conference Friday, Trump told reporters that his relationship with President Xi Jinping is “doing very well,” though the two are having a “little spat.”

“We are looking for a complete deal,” he stressed. “I am not looking for a partial deal.”

Unlikely US would agree to lift restrictions on Huawei – US official

  
  Analysis
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US official cited by Reuters

  • Trump’s decision on whether to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods depends on meeting with Xi, nothing agreed ahead of time
  • Unlikely US would agree to lift restrictions on Huawei
From China’s perspective, it would make sense that Xi wouldn’t agree to meet without assurances that more sanctions wouldn’t be applied. If Trump walks out of the meeting and hits the US with a fresh round, it would reflect poorly on the leader. In general, these things are always agreed on ahead of time, with room for tweaks.

The 13 Virtues, from Dylan Distasio

  
  Education
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I am sure you have seen and heard the story of Benjamin Franklin’s 13 moral virtues, but here they are as a good reminder for all of us:

TEMPERANCE. Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation.

SILENCE. Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation.

ORDER. Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time.

RESOLUTION. Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve.

FRUGALITY. Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself; i.e., waste nothing. (more…)

The Stimulus Packages Will Soon Lose Its Influence

  
Analysis, Education
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“I am not sure yet that the recession is already over because the numbers of unemployed persons in the United States is still increasing and there are several indicators that barely suggest a rebound on the economy , I think that also this year it will not get better because the stimulus packages will already lose its influence So I could imagine that we would not have a basic rebound and that the markets will rather correct.”

translated from a german TV video interview, April 2010

WISDOM FROM BERNARD BARUCH -Evergreen

  
Analysis, Education
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From the SAME AS IT EVER WAS file: Bernard Baruch, a colleague and friend of Jesse Livermore’s, who made a fortune shorting the 1929 crash, and then who later advised presidents Woodrow Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt on economic matters, listed the following investment rules in his autobiography published in 1958 entitled Baruch: My Own Story.  These rules are still as applicable today.


1.  Don’t speculate unless you can make it a full-time job.
2.  Beware of barbers, beauticians, waiters–of anyone–bringing gifts of “inside” information or “tips.”
3.  Before you buy a security, find out everything you can about the company, its management and competitors, its earnings and possibilities for growth.
4.  Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.  This can’t be done–except by liars.
5.  Learn how to take your losses quickly and cleanly.  Don’t expect to be right all the time.  If you have made a mistake, cut your losses as quickly as possible.
6.  Don’t buy too many different securities.  Better have only a few investments which can be watched.
7.  Make a periodic reappraisal of all your investments to see whether changing developments have altered their prospects.
8.  Study your tax position to know when you can sell to greatest advantage.
9.  Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve.  Never invest all your funds.
10.  Don’t try to be a jack of all investments.  Stick to the field you know best.

7 Best Books Bill Gates had Read In 2013

  
  Education
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bill-gates-1983Bill Gates presents his seven top reads in 2013.

Commenting on the lack of novels on the list, Gates writes:

“It’s not that I don’t enjoy fiction. I’ve read The Catcher in the Rye a bunch of times-it’s one of my favorite books ever (and I enjoyed Salinger, the documentary that came out this year). I did read Gary Shteyngart’s Super Sad True Love Story, which was entertaining though it didn’t have as much science fiction as I expected.
But I read mostly nonfiction because I always want to learn more about how the world works. And reading is how I learn best.”

That’s an interesting statement coming from Gates, especially in light of recent posts on using literature to studydecision-making under ignorance.

With that said, Gates is an excellent source of reading material for me. His top reads of 2012 led me to order Behind the Beautiful Forevers, a book I added to my antilibrary. And his summer reading list, along with the recommendations of readers, encouraged me to read The Box, a surprisingly enjoyable read on the history of the shipping container. This book shows up again on the end of year list of his top reads.

Here are his picks, in no particular order:

The Box, by Marc Levinson

“You might think you don’t want to read a whole book about shipping containers… But he makes a good case that the move to containerized shipping had an enormous impact on the global economy and changed the way the world does business. And he turns it into a very readable narrative. I won’t look at a cargo ship in quite the same way again.”

The Most Powerful Idea in the World, by William Rosen

“A bit like The Box, except it’s about steam engines… I’d wanted to know more about steam engines since the summer of 2009, when my son and I spent a lot of time hanging out at the Science Museum in London.”

Harvesting the Biosphere, by Vaclav Smil (more…)

It's Just Beginning-22 Signs That The Global Economic Turmoil so far in 2016g

  
Analysis, Education
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As bad as the month of January was for the global economy, the truth is that the rest of 2016 promises to be much worse.  Layoffs are increasing at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession, major retailers are shutting down hundreds of locations, corporate profit margins are plunging, global trade is slowing down dramatically, and several major European banks are in the process of completely imploding.  I am about to share some numbers with you that are truly eye-popping.  Each one by itself would be reason for concern, but when you put all of the pieces together it creates a picture that is hard to deny. 

The global economy is in crisis, and this is going to have very serious implications for the financial markets moving forward.  U.S. stocks just had their worst January in seven years, and if I am right much worse is still yet to come this year.  The following are 22 signs that the global economic turmoil that we have seen so far in 2016 is just the beginning…

1. The number of job cuts in the United States skyrocketed 218 percent during the month of January according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

2. The Baltic Dry Index just hit yet another brand new all-time record low.  As I write this article, it is sitting at 303.

3. U.S. factory orders have now dropped for 14 months in a row.

4. In the U.S., the Restaurant Performance Index just fell to the lowest level that we have seen since 2008.

5. In January, orders for class 8 trucks (the big trucks that you see shipping stuff around the country on our highways) declined a whopping 48 percent from a year ago.

6. Rail traffic is also slowing down substantially.  In Colorado, there are hundreds of train engines that are just sitting on the tracks with nothing to do.

7. Corporate profit margins peaked during the third quarter of 2014 and have been declining steadily since then.  This usually happens when we are heading into a recession.

8. A series of extremely disappointing corporate quarterly reports is sending stock after stock plummeting.  Here is a summary from Zero Hedge of a few examples that we have just witnessed… (more…)

You Never Know When You Will Drop Dead

  
  Education
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Arnold Schwarzenegger used to always say — Schwarzenegger, love him, hate him, I don’t necessarily have a feeling one way or the other, but he used to always say that a good pump in his weight-lifting world was as good as sex. I’d say hitting a home run is right there. The point is, getting to the point where you have got it on the line, you’re making something happen, you don’t give a shit what your neighbors think of you. You don’t give a shit what your family thinks of you. You’re just gonna take on the world. That’s it. That’s the goal. You live one time, one time and it’s over. If you go through life scared, if you go through life following the plan that your father told you to do, that your mother told you to do, or some other nonsense society told you to do: you need to get a steady job, you need a college degree, then you get a steady job, yada, yada, yada. Guess what, you’ll be 60, by the time you know it you’ll be 70, maybe you’ll be dead soon.

Stop waiting for the perfect opportunity to start living the way you want to live. 

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