Archives of “United States Senate” tag

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CNN report that Biden tells House progressives spending package needs to be between $1.9 tln and $2.2 tln

  
  Analysis
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Via a CNN report, citing two sources

Biden in a virtual meeting with a group of House progressives on Monday
  • said the top line of the social safety net package needs to come down to somewhere between $1.9 trillion and $2.2 trillion
  • Biden told the group, according to one of the sources, that was the range he felt Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema would accept but did not specify further within that range.
Climbing down from higher numbers earlier. Less fiscal boost will not be as positive for markets looking for stimulus, but on the other hand getting the thing passed will be positive.

Thursday is the deadline for avoiding a US government shut down. Schumer says it’ll pass.

  
  Analysis
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The US Senate will vote Thursday morning (local time) on a stopgap bill to keep the government funded through to December 3.

There are a series of votes beginning at 10.30am Washington time.
The stopgap funding bill will require 60 votes to pass. The numbers in the senate are evenly split, 50/50, between Dems and Reps. Senate Leader Schumer has said he has an agreement to get the bill passed though.
If it does pass the bill goes for voting in the US House where it should pass. If so it heads then to the White House for Biden to sign.
Midnight Thursday is the deadline.

What’s priced in for the US election

  
  Analysis
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It’s 76 days until the election

Biden and Trump picture
The deadlock in US economic stimulus negotiations highlights the political risk for the US coming out of the election. The sides simply can’t compromise.
At this point, you have to assume that most Americas have made up their minds about Trump, Biden and how they will vote.
In normal times, a Biden win would be the consensus. National polls in the past week show him from +4 to +11. Of course, these aren’t normal times and no one has forgotten the surprise on election night in 2016. Even with that, it’s worth remembering that Clinton won the popular vote by about what was expected, it was that a handful of states surprised. Her polling average was also only about +3% and she never reached this kind of spread.
Here’s how BMO sees it:

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USA credit rating outlook revised to negative from stable by Fitch

  
  Analysis
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Bold move by the rating agency

USA downgrade Fitch
The rating was affirmed at AAA but lowered to negative from stable. That’s how you get yourself a lawsuit.
  • Cites ongoing deterioration in public finances
  • Sees general debt to GDP above 130% by 2021
  • Expects deficit to narrow to 11% of GDP in 2021
  • Expects US economy to contract 5.6% this year
  • Statement
What Fitch had to say:
The Outlook has been revised to Negative to reflect the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, issues that were highlighted in the agency’s last rating review on March 26, 2020. High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path even before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the coronavirus. They have started to erode the traditional credit strengths of the US.
They’re not wrong.
Another risk they cite is the possibility of policy gridlock after the election because neither party will get a 60-seat Senate majority.

FT report “US stimulus delays as Republican talks fall into disarray”

  
  Analysis
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The ongoing bickering and war of words in the Republican senate has delayed any action on further stimulus.

This earlier – they won’t even get a rough outline until next week let alone any action:
  • US Senate leader McConnell says will introduce ‘framework’ for recovery bill “early next week”

Financial Times have a report up on the delays, link is here (may be gated)

  • Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate majority leader, had been expected to announce the party’s stimulus proposal on Thursday morning, only to reverse course later in the day and announce the plan would not come until next week.
Getting the stimulus done is in Republican interest, any support for the economy will be welcomed by Trump’s re-election campaign.
The ongoing bickering and war of words in the Republican senate has delayed any action on further stimulus.

GOP leaders said to meet at White House later today to discuss next coronavirus bill

  
  Analysis
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FOX News reporter, Chad Pergram, reaffirms the earlier story

Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and House GOP leader, Kevin McCarthy, will be headed to the White House later to discuss the next stimulus bill with Trump and Mnuchin. This adds to the story from earlier in the day here.

 

US
The end of the month is going to be an interesting time, as the US approaches a fiscal cliff with stimulus money set to run out in the coming weeks/months.
Amid a surge in virus cases and the likelihood of the economy facing more dire consequences – not to mention election uncertainty, it will be interesting to see if the market can hold up in the way that it has over the past few months. A neat summary by Bloomberg:
US virus

US Senate sets rules for Trump’s impeachment trial, adopts McConnell’s plan

  
Analysis, Politics
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The Senate rejects the final Democratic amendment to the impeachment rules

Trump

The rules resolution passed with a vote of 53-47, allowing for a more relaxed timeline as Trump’s defense now have three days to present their arguments – instead of the originally proposed two days.

The Senate is also sticking with Mitch McConnell’s plan to put off the question of calling additional witnesses and have shelved amendments from Chuck Schumer to subpoena new documents and testimony related to the trial.
It’s not like this makes a huge difference but this just reaffirms the notion that Trump will no doubt be acquitted when all this is said and done. But this just means that the trial could conclude as soon as next week if no new witnesses are called upon.
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