A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money. Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, strongly believes that learning from mistakes is essential to improvement and ultimate success. Each mistake, if recognized and acted upon, provides an opportunity for improving a trading approach. Most traders would benefit by writing down each mistake, the implied lesson, and the intended change in the trading process. Such a trading log can be periodically reviewed for reinforcement. Trading mistakes cannot be avoided, but repeating the same mistakes can be, and doing so is often the difference between success and failure. For some traders, the discipline and patience to do nothing when the environment is unfavorable or opportunities are lacking is a crucial element in their success. For example, despite making minimal use of short positions, Kevin Daly, the manager of the Five Corners fund, achieved cumulative gross returns in excess of 800% during a 12-year period when the broad equity markets were essentially flat. In part, he accomplished this feat by having the discipline to remain largely in cash during negative environments, which allowed him to sidestep large drawdowns during two major bear markets. The lesson is that if conditions are not right, or the return/risk is not sufficiently favorable, don’t do anything. Beware of taking dubious trades out of impatience. |
Archives of “ultimate success” tag
rssBetter to Be Profitable Than Right
ego” when trading futures.Mark Cook, a well-respected trader and trading educator from rural Ohio, for many years has stressed that traders need to lose their egos before getting into trading futures markets. He is also an advocate of survival in futures trading.
One must survive in this challenging arena before one can succeed. I enjoyed listening to Mark at a trading seminar a few years ago. He even used to wear bib-overalls (with no shirt) at some of his trading seminars—just to drive home the point that trading futures is not easy and that ultimate success takes a lot of hard work.
My good friend and respected trader and educator Glen Ring also espouses the notion, and may have even coined the phrase, “it’s better to be profitable than right in futures trading.” Those who know or have talked to Glen know he, too, is a no-nonsense, no-hype trader who takes a yeoman’s approach to the business. When asked what direction a specific market “will” go in the future, Glen is never afraid to say, “I don’t know,” before he adds that, “successful trading is nota business of predictions but one of probabilities based on past price history.” (more…)
Trading in the Zone
These Beliefs are the Seven Principles of Consistency from Mark Douglas’s “Trading in the Zone” I highly recommend picking this book up to add to your collection, because it has benefited me tremendously in understand how beliefs and values play a vital role in one’s trading and ultimate success.
I remember the first time I picked this book up I didn’t “get” it and put it away. About a year later I read it again and it just clicked. I now reference it on a weekly schedule just so the principles in the book stay fresh in my mind and to reinforce what I had learned.
I am a Consistent Winner Because:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk in every trade.
3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and , therefore, I never violate them.
Five Fundamental Truths:
1. Anything can happen.
2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
5. Every moment in the market is unique.
Addional Mark Douglas Material in PDF form. (more…)
Five Market Wizard Lessons
“Five Market Wizard Lessons”
Hedge Fund Market Wizards is ultimately a search for insights to be drawn from the most successful market practitioners. The last chapter distills the wisdom of the 15 skilled traders interviewed into 40 key market lessons. A sampling is provided below:
1. There Is No Holy Grail in Trading
Many traders mistakenly believe that there is some single solution to defining market behavior. Not only is there no single solution to the markets, but those solutions that do exist are continually changing. The range of the methods used by the traders interviewed in Hedge Fund Market Wizards, some of which are even polar opposites, is a testament to the diversity of possible approaches. There are a multitude of ways to be successful in the markets, albeit they are all hard to find and achieve.
2. Don’t Confuse the Concepts of Winning and Losing Trades with Good and Bad Trades
A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money. Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money. (more…)
Build Your Trading Confidence
What is the definition of confidence? I define confidence as positive thoughts, feelings and actions reflecting your self-belief and expectations of your ultimate success. Success is never guaranteed, but self-doubt and negativity can ensure failure. When you believe in yourself, you move away from harmful distractions such as anxiety and fear, and you move toward a more effective performance focus. Today, we’ll take a look at how to make sure you’re confident enough to survive the trading game.
Aside from the obvious benefits, confidence also bolsters your internal security during trading slumps and gives you additional fuel to persevere through challenging periods. Self-belief promotes traders to create more ambitious performance targets, allowing for greater accomplishment. Traders who display low confidence tend to worry excessively about mistakes, lose focus on what’s driving results, quit trading at the wrong times and get overly worked up about each new trade. Excess confidence can also be dangerous in causing a trader to overcommit capital and be subjected to too much risk when a position goes bad. So your goal should be to promote the internal confidence while still showing the external disciplines to prevent the ego from taking over the consistent execution of a trading method.
Here are seven tips to encourage greater confidence:
1. Frequently visualize a successful trading process. What goes into good trading for you? Make sure you see the preparation required, the focus you have during the trading day, and the continous learning from both winning and losing trades to keep getting more effective.
2. Increase your level of physical fitness, as this will enhance both your trading alertness and give a boost to your self-image simultaneously. Both of these elements make you a more confidence trader.
3. Make a list of your strengths. Review this list regularly to remind yourself of how successful you really are.
4. Eliminate negative thoughts and memories. When they occur, replace them with positive self-statements (for example, “I create my own luck” or “I have a good written plan of how I will execute my trades”).
5. Have a general strategy going into each trading day. When you prepare the day before, you position yourself to be proactive and gain confidence as you implement your plan. How aware are you of what you’re experiencing in your mind, body and soul at any moment? You need to set up a monitoring system at the end of each trading day, to summarize what you executed according to your rules and what you did not. Look for patterns in your behavior, that you can copy if they work for you, or minimize if they are costing you.
6. Create positive body language regardless of the gain or loss on that trading day. The way you act will often influence the way you feel for future trades. The more confident you feel, the more confidence you will show in your trading.
7. Improve on areas of weakness during preparation time and you’ll create more confidence and belief during the trading day.
Focus on one of these seven tips at a time, until you can build that area as a habit in your routine. This will service to greatly improve your trading confidence over time.
3 Key Lessons For All Traders
Don’t Confuse the Concepts of Winning and Losing Trades with Good and Bad Trades
A good trade can lose money, and a bad trade can make money.
Even the best trading processes will lose a certain percentage of the time. There is no way of knowing a priori which individual trade will make money. As long as a trade adhered to a process with a positive edge, it is a good trade, regardless of whether it wins or loses because if similar trades are repeated multiple times, they will come out ahead. Conversely, a trade that is taken as a gamble is a bad trade regardless of whether it wins or loses because over time such trades will lose money.
If You Are Out of Sync with the Markets, Trying Harder Won’t Help
When trading is going badly, trying harder is often likely to make matters even worse. If you are in a losing streak, the best action may be to step away from the markets. Clark advises that the best way to handle a losing streak is to liquidate everything and take a vacation. A physical break can serve to interrupt the downward spiral and loss of confidence that can develop during losing periods. Clark further advises that when trading is resumed, the size should be kept small until confidence is regained.
The Road to Success Is Paved with Mistakes
Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, strongly believes that learning from mistakes is essential to improvement and ultimate success. Each mistake, if recognized and acted upon, provides an opportunity for improving a trading approach. Most traders would benefit by writing down each mistake, the implied lesson, and the intended change in the trading process. Such a trading log can be periodically reviewed for reinforcement. Trading mistakes cannot be avoided, but repeating the same mistakes can be, and doing so is often the difference between success and failure.