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IMF: Dollar Carry-Trade Creating Bubbles Around The World

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, Global Indices
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imf-global data

bubble(1)

Read a PDF of the IMF’s recent report here.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the fact that low interest rates in the U.S., plus an apparent “one-way” bet against the dollar has created a global dollar carry-trade that is driving capital flows into emerging markets.

If not handled properly, this will lead to emerging market asset bubbles, which arguably have already begun to inflate.

We’ve highlighted before how places like Hong Kong are seeing property prices go through the roof due to low U.S. interest rates. (more…)

How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

  
  Education
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effortTake a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.

9 Lessons From The Greatest Trader Who Ever Lived

  
  Education
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One of the good guys (for me, at least) has always been Jesse L. Livermore. He’s considered by many of today’s top Wall Street traders to be the greatest trader who ever lived.
Leaving home at age 14 with no more than five bucks in his pocket, Livermore went on to earn millions on Wall Street back in the days when they still literally read the tape.
Long or short, it didn’t matter to Jesse.
Instead, he was happy to take whatever the markets gave him because he knew what every good trader knows: Markets never go straight up or straight down.
In one of Livermore’s more famous moves, he made a massive fortune betting against the markets in 1929, earning $100 million in short-selling profits during the crash. In today’s dollars, that would be a cool $12.6 billion.
That’s part of the reason why an earlier biography of his life, entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, has been a must-read for experienced traders and beginners alike.
A gambler and speculator to the core, his insights into human nature and the markets have been widely quoted ever since.
Here are just a few of his market beating lessons: 

On the school of hard knocks:

The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching. It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right.

On losing trades:

Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

On trading the trends:

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end. (more…)

95% of profits come from 5% percent of trades

  
  Education
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RELAX-JUSTA high return/high risk trader will have 95% of profits come from 5% percent of trades. What this is telling you is that there is no need to “overtrade” just for the action. The bulk of profits are made in the waiting, not the trading. This should free up your time for the more important things in life such as family, golf, Watching movies ,afternoon lapdances, etc.

The Difference: Mediocrity vs. Greatness

  
  Education
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In Trading, the STATISTICS show that smarts, experience, etc. are not the differentiating factor.
The BEST (most successful guys I know and work with) have winning %’s of less than 50%.. actually, the average is between 45-55% but the point is, basically, winning percentages don’t matter – so they might as well be a random event.

 So, what does make a difference?

 

  • CONVICTION in ideas
  • INTERNAL CONFIDENCE
  • TRUSTING YOURSELF
  • GETTING BIG IN TRADES you believe in
  • LETTING WINNERS RUN
  • CUTTING LOSERS QUICKLY
  • SWITCHING DIRECTIONS QUICKLY

 

 These are many of the factors that allow some people to become monster traders over time. It’s not my opinion, just my observations. 

Not Having a Trading Plan

  
  Education
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TRADINGPLAN“If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail”. I don’t know who first said that, but it’s a very sound piece of advise indeed. Planning is something that is all too often overlooked by traders, and yet a well drafted trading plan is one of the most important tools for success and profit.
In talking to struggling traders, I am constantly amazed at not only how many don’t have a trading plan, but how many don’t even know what such a plan is. In fact a trading plan is quite simple, it’s a document that details every aspect of your trading strategy. It is literally a blue-print for your trading methodology.
What should be in this document? Here are the most important areas it should cover: (more…)

You Just Might Be …Gambler

  
  Education
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When does trading become gambling? There is a very thin line. I maintain that most traders ARE gamblers. They use markets as a substitute for a casino.

1. IF you enter trades without a clear trading plan, you just might be a gambler.

2. IF you trade just to be trading, you just might be a gambler.

3. IF you’re bored and enter a trade, you just might be a gambler.

4. IF you look at potential profit before assessing potential loses, you just might be a gambler.

5. IF you have no impulse control, you just might be a gambler.

6. IF you have no methodology, you just might be a gambler.

7. IF you rely on others for your trading decisions, you just might be a gambler.

8. IF you do not take full responsibility for your trading outcomes, you just might be a gambler.

9. IF you increase your risk due to losses, you just might be a gambler.

10. IF you do not use stop losses or do not adhere to them, you just might be a gambler.

And my all time favorite

11. IF you get an adrenaline rush when your entering trades, you just might be a gambler.

Traders’ Discipline

  
  Education
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disciplinetraderTop daytraders have the discipline to follow their daytrading system rigorously, because they know that only the trades that are signaled by their system have a greater rate of success. Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets. Some websites have sought to profit from day traders by offering them hot tips and stock picks for a fee.

Day trading is an investment tactic with a relatively short investment. You need to position yourself so that you can endure long strings of losses, and maintain your day trading system. (more…)

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