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Trick for Traders

I developed a little trick that might seem trivial, but it is very important. Simply put, anytime to you put a trade on, assume that the trade is going to be a loser. No matter how much analysis, how many supporting factors, or how perfect the pattern is, assume that the trade will lose money. This creates a profound shift in your focus because, rather than searching for and possibly discounting contradictory evidence (which can sometimes be as simple as “I just bought and now it’s going down…”), you will be open to and will readily accept contradicting information. Of course you will, because you assumed the trade was wrong to begin with. When you find confirmation for the trade, it is almost a pleasant surprise. Shift your thinking into this mode, and you will be much less likely to overstay your welcome in suboptimal setups that are not working out–you’ll be far more likely to do the right thing, which is usually to pull the plug on the trade (time stop) and look for a better opportunity.

Now, there’s another piece to this puzzle. A lot of writers focus a lot of attention on confidence in trading, and this is important, but it is a different kind of confidence. You must have confidence in your method and know that a profit is virtually assured over a large enough set of trades, and be able to separate this knowledge from the outcome of any one trade which is, more or less, a coin flip.

Trading Profits in relate to Time and Accuracy

 

The size of profits of a trading system, is related to time and accuracy. They are inter-related and it is not possible to get the best out of all 3 factors in any trading system.

 

Before I elaborate further, I shall define what these 3 factors mean.

 

Size of profits – I am referring to the average amount of profits the system will earn per trade.

 

Time – The average length of time you held on to a trade.

 

Accuracy – The percentage that the system is correct and earns you a profit.

 

Big Profits = Long Time = Low Accuracy

 

For systems that aim for big profits, they must allow a greater range of fluctuations for the trade. By having a large trading range will in turn prevent you from getting stopped out so soon. Hence, you will be in a trade for a longer period of time. Besides having a larger profits, it will also serve you losses that are bigger, because your stop loss limit has to be further from your entry point. It is more difficult to grasp for the relationship with accuracy.

 

Small Profits = Short Time = High Accuracy (more…)

Trading Profits in relations to Time and Accuracy

The size of profits of a trading system, is related to time and accuracy. They are inter-related and it is not possible to get the best out of all 3 factors in any trading system.

Before I elaborate further, I shall define what these 3 factors mean.

Size of profits – I am referring to the average amount of profits the system will earn per trade.

Time – The average length of time you held on to a trade.

Accuracy – The percentage that the system is correct and earns you a profit.

Big Profits = Long Time = Low Accuracy

For systems that aim for big profits, they must allow a greater range of fluctuations for the trade. By having a large trading range will in turn prevent you from getting stopped out so soon. Hence, you will be in a trade for a longer period of time. Besides having a larger profits, it will also serve you losses that are bigger, because your stop loss limit has to be further from your entry point. It is more difficult to grasp for the relationship with accuracy.

Small Profits = Short Time = High Accuracy

On the contrary, a highly accurate trading system allows you to be right most of the time but each time when you are right, you take very small profits. This is possible by making very tight stops in your trades such that you lock in profits as soon as you make them. Hence, you will be in and out of the trades very fast and frequently. This is typical to intraday trading or mean reversion models or even band trading. (more…)

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