There are four basic principles of price behavior which have held up over time. Confidence that a type of price action is a true principle is what allows a trader to develop a systematic approach. The following four principles can be modeled and quantified and hold true for all time frames, all markets. The majority of patterns or systems that have a demonstrable edge are based on one of these four enduring principles of price behavior. Charles Dow was one of the first to touch on them in his writings.
Principle One: A Trend Has a Higher Probability of Continuation than Reversal
Principle Two: Momentum Precedes Price
Principle Three: Trends End in a Climax
Principle Four: The Market Alternates between Range Expansion and Range Contraction!
Archives of “time frames” tag
rssWhy Trading Is A Performance Sport
Learn about various trading software
Learn how to interpret candlestick charts and patterns
Learn Fib extensions and retracements
Try-out various time frames
Learn trade executions
Learn how to manage trades
Learn about emotional control and psychology
Learn about risk control
Devise a precise trading method
Learn about money management
Backtest set-up for several months
Internalize set-ups by paper trading
Have to be adequately capitalized
Specialize in gap trading
Learn about creating a daily watch list
Learn how to prioritize a daily hit list
Set up blog for recording daily diary of ideas and thoughts
Devise a system to analyze trading results – daily and monthly
Develop a daily precise routine
Selflessness
The markets are nothing more than a reflection of cumulative sum of human reactions to financial data inflow. As a trader, you are part of it, and millions like you create that entity that appears to be moving so intelligently in all time frames.
So how it is possible that you and millions like you can create the greatest illusionist, the market, and ironically fight against it in every moment of your trading life.
In other words, the market becomes the ultimate enemy of yours and you fight it all the time? As an unit reflection of the market’s image, can you defeat yourself?
Your fight can only be as good as your best, but you create your enemy with your best as well.
That is why this is an endless game because no one can win it all the time as no one can keep beating himself all the time… UNLESS YOU ARE A SELFLESS PERSON. (more…)
"Your Special Unique Trading Strengths and Weaknesses"
Each one of us is born with special unique abilities and we are naturally drawn to them and develop them along the way. They manifest themselves in all areas of our lives. There are also things we don’t like to do or that are difficult for us to do. It simply makes sense to focus on what we like and what comes easily to us and avoid or delegate what we don’t like or find hard and stressful to do.
The same is true with trading. There are parts of your trading that you’re naturally good at. There are aspects of trading that you love, that excite you, and give you passion. The more you trade the better you seem to get in these areas.
What is your special trading or investing capability? Pause and think about it. WRITE IT DOWN. I can’t guide you or even suggest what is uniquely easy and effective in your trading.
The best part of my trading is ______________________________________.
The part of trading I most enjoy is___________________________________.
You can build on these and exponentially improve your trading results and your trading ease and enjoyment. It also makes sense that your methods and time frames are compatible with these strengths and tendencies.
Now we need to acknowledge the opposite. Each of us has innate limitations and vulnerabilities that also affect our trading and investing. There are parts of the trading game that are hard for us, that we don’t like, may even hate. As much as we try to overcome these areas we frequently relapse into these frail deficiencies. We say we’ll never do that again, and then, of course we do.
Trading Psychology
Your biggest enemy, when trading, is within yourself. Success will only come when you learn to control your emotions. Edwin Lefevre’s
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) offers advice that still applies today.
Caution
Excitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.
Patience
Wait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.
Conviction
Have the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward climb.
Detachment
Concentrate on the technical aspects rather than on the money. If your trades are technically correct, the profits will follow.
Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in the short-term excitement. Screen-watching is a tell-tale sign: if you continually check prices or stare at charts for hours it is a sign that you are unsure of your strategy and are likely to suffer losses.
Focus
Focus on the longer time frames and do not try to catch every short-term fluctuation. The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends.
Expect the unexpected
Investing involves dealing with probabilities ? not certainties. No one can predict the market correctly every time. Avoid gamblers? logic.
Average up – not down
If you increase your position when price goes against you, you are liable to compound your losses. When price starts to move it is likely to continue in that direction. Rather increase your exposure when the market proves you right and moves in your favor.
Limit your losses
Use stop-losses to protect your funds. When the stop loss is triggered, act immediately – don’t hesitate.
The biggest mistake you can make is to hold on to falling stocks, hoping for a recovery. Falling stocks have a habit of declining way below what you expected them to. Eventually you are forced to sell, decimating your capital.
Human nature being what it is, most traders and investors ignore these rules when they first start out. It can be an expensive lesson.
Control your emotions and avoid being swept along with the crowd. Make consistent decisions based on sound technical analysis.
Mark Cuban On Story Stocks
Don’t Miss to Read :
Different catalysts matter for the different time frames. In short-term perspective, price momentum is the most powerful catalyst. Short-term could sometimes be a couple years in the market. Here are a few wise words, written in 2004, by someone who has been on both sides of the table – as a shareholder and company owner:
For years, a company’s price can have less to do with a company’s real prospects than with the excitement it and its supporters are able to generate among investors. That lesson was reinforced as I saw the Gandalf experience repeated with many different stocks over the next 10 years. Brokers and bankers market and sell stocks. Unless demand can be manufactured, the
stock will decline.
If the value of a stock is what people will pay for it, then Broadcast.com was fairly valued. We were able to work with Morgan Stanley to create volume around the stock. Volume creates demand. Stocks don’t go up because companies do well or do poorly. Stocks go up and down depending on supply and demand. If a stock is marketed well enough to create more demand from buyers than there are sellers, the stock will go up. What about fundamentals? Fundamentals is a word invented by sellers to find buyers. (more…)
Core Trading Concepts
If you are serious about your trading there are some concepts you must know in significant details. Those concepts will help you build a strong foundation on which you can build a trading system. There are seven concepts you should study:
- Momentum : If you understand this you will understand trends and mean reversion. You will understand why and how momentum works in the market. Most indicators are momentum based. Trend following and buying strength also works, so does mean reversion. They are all part of the momentum phenomenon.
- Market Breadth: Stock markets are composite markets. The overall move in market is an aggregate of moves of several hundred or several thousand stocks. So the level of participation in a move is important.
- Equity Selection: Because the overall market is a composite of many individual moves, it becomes critical to select right kind of stocks from the universe of stocks. Hence equity selection is extremely critical. You should know various ways in which one can select equities.
- Market Anomalies: Market anomalies are the distortions in the market. If you base your trading on a proven and statistically significant anomaly, you will be profitable. Absent that no amount of indicators will help you. A through understanding of anomalies will give you an edge.
- Market Microstructure: Market Microstructure is a branch of finance concerned with the details of how exchange occurs in markets. Understanding this will tell you how the market operates. The concept of market microstructre is very critical if you are trading very small time frames or are a day trader. Because to be successful on those time frame you need to find exploitable anomalies in market microstructure. You need to understand role played by market makers, automated programs, arbitragers, large fund buyers and so on. Their tactics and behaviour creates certain patterns
- Growth investing : Growth investors buy stocks of companies growing faster than the average company in the market.
- Value investing : Value investors buy stocks of companies which are cheap or out of favor.
10 Essential Trading Words
1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum.
7. Let’s profits run – one or two good trades might make your month. One or two good months might make your year. Letting profits run is as important as cutting losses short. Bigger winners will allow you the luxury to be right in less than half of the trades and still be profitable.
8. Consistency – Stick to your method of trading ideas’ generation.
9. Specialize – Specialize in one or two distinct setups. It could be a combination of technicals and fundamentals, certain timeframe or special event as a trading catalyst, certain sector or trading vehicle.
10. Have a plan – Which are stocks that you will be paying special attention to – this week, today. Why those stocks? In which direction you expect them to continue their move? What will give you a clue for the beginning of the move? Follow them exclusivelly and enter without a hesitation when they give you a signal. Don’t just wake up and sit in front of your monitor without having a clue what are you going to trade today.
STOCK TRADING IS ABOUT ATTITUDE
“If you want to be good at something, practice. Practice deliberately, and do so for many years.” Mike Bellafiore, One Good Trade
If the activities that lead to greatness were easy and fun, then everyone would do them and they would not distinguish the best from the rest.” Geoff Colvin, Talent Is Overrated
“He that is good for making excuses is seldom good for anything else.” Benjamin Franklin
“Commitment, perseverance, and discipline are the characteristics that move people beyond desire to action, that differentiate mediocrity from greatness, and that separate greatness from superstardom.” Doug Hirschhorn, 8 Ways to Great.
“I always felt that my greatest asset was not my physical ability, it was my mental ability.” Bruce Jenner
“Those who are motivated by the love of the game attain a deeper sense of satisfaction from their work than those who are driven solely by the pursuit of wealth.” Brian Shannon, Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames
“A free lunch is only found in mousetraps. “ John Capuzzi (more…)
10 Essential Trading Words
1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.
2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.
3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.
4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.
5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.
6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum. (more…)