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Don't Be Fooled By Stock Market Noise

  
  Education
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  • The volume of market and economic information is increasing exponentially, but the amount of useful information certainly isn’t.
  • Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal; hence, the higher the noise-to-signal ratio.
  • The “signal” is the truth and needs to be taken seriously; the “noise” is what distracts us from the truth and needs to be ignored.
  • This is why the higher the noise-to-signal ratio, the more difficult it becomes to make intelligent investment decisions.
  • Investors must use “filters” to separate the signal from the noise – this will improve their decision-making and investment performance.
 

 

India's GDP growth to crawl at 4.7% in second quarter: ZyFin

  
  Education
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Barely over a week ahead of release of the official GDP data, research and analytical firm ZyFin today estimated India’s economy to expand by 4.7% in the  second quarter of the current financial year. The methodology used by ZyFin is distinct  and it claimed that it uses variables  which are lead indicators to the official data. If GDP indeed grows by this rate, the Finance  Ministry’s hopes of  GDP growth between 5-5.5%  in 2013-14 may be dashed.  

 
In the first quarter of the current financial year, the GDP expanded at a four-year bottom of 4.4%. At that time, ZyFin had estimated a growth of 4.5%. 
 
“We still believe that the economy is in a crisis mode and much below what the economy used to grow at a pace of around 8%”, Debopam Chaudhuri, Vice President of Research and Development at Zyfin told Business Standard.
 
However, even if the economy grows at this pace, it would be at a year high — both according to official and ZyFin estimates. In the second quarter of 2012-13, the economic growth was higher at 5.2% as per official estimates and by ZyFin’s calculations it was 5.1%.
 
“While the estimates indicate a sluggish recovery, high inflation, weak consumer sentiment and a slowing services sector will constrain any sustained recovery”, said the firm. (more…)

Google Commercial- 6 Lac Hits in 2 Days (Really Great )

  
Education, Video
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Google commercials have always been quite engaging. Google India is out with a 3.5 minute heart-warming advertisement titled ‘Google Search: Reunion’. The Reunion advertisement tells you a story of how two friends got separated during the time of India and Pakistan partition. The Indian grand daughter Suman plans to bring them together again and uses Google search as the medium to search for her grand fathers long lost friend in Pakistan. She succeeds using Google search and its allied services.
Reports suggest this is the first in the series of 5 advertisements. The video is touching half a million views in just a day of its launch.

Google Chairman Predicts the End of Internet

  
  Education
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Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt said that the internet will become so ubiquitous that it will “disappear,” CNET reports.

 When asked about his views on the future evolution of the web, the Google Chairman stated that he would “answer very simply that the internet will disappear.” Schmidt explained “there will be so many IP addresses…so many devices, sensors, things you are wearing, things that you are interacting with that you won’t even sense it; it will be part of your presence all the time.”

“Imagine you walk into a room, and the room is dynamic. And with your permission and all of that, you are interacting with the things going on in the room. A highly personalized, highly interactive and very, very interesting world emerges,” he noted.

Schmidt was speaking at a panel dubbed “The Future of the Digital Economy,” along with top executives from Vodafone, Facebook, and Microsoft.

Privacy Concerns (more…)

In 1983, Steve Jobs Hosted Apple's Version Of 'The Dating Game' And Bill Gates Was A Contestant

  
Education, Video
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The year was 1983, and 28-year-old Steve Jobs was hosting an Apple event for his employees.

Jobs invited three software guys: Frank Gibbons of Software Publishing Co., Mitch Kapor of Lotus, and none other than Bill Gates of Microsoft.

All of the men are in their geek-chic uniform of khakis and polo shirts (the hoodies of yesteryear), to answer questions about their company’s relationship with Apple, all in the style of “The Dating Game”.

In the video below, you’ll hear only Gates’ answers, but those, of course, are the most interesting. The two seem almost chummy, and the crowd is completely entertained.

Jobs and Gates didn’t meet onstage again for almost 25 years after this event.

You’ll see that Bill Gates is really trying win that “date” in this game, but who does Jobs pick in the end? Watch and find out.

Mauboussin: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making (Video )

  
Education, Video
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Making an important decision is never easy, but making the right decision is even more challenging. Effective decision-making isn’t just about accumulating information and going with what seems to make the most sense. Sometimes, internal biases can impact the way we seek out and process information, polluting the conclusions we reach in the process. It’s critical to be conscious of those tendencies and to accumulate the sort of fact-based and unbiased inputs that will result in the highest likelihood that a decision actually leads to the desired outcome. In this video, Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse’s Head of Financial Strategies, lays out three steps that can help focus a decision-maker’s thinking.

Make the Right Choice: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making 

Richard Donchian’s Trading Rules (Father of TrendFollowing)

  
  Education
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Richard Donchian developed a plan in 1934 (no, that is not a typo) that he soon published as a set of guidelines. The majority of those guidelines are still relevant to every investor today:

  1. Beware of acting immediately on widespread public opinion. Even if correct, if will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. LIMIT LOSSES, ride profits – irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when a market position is not certain.
  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for one-day reversal.
  6. Judicious use of stop orders is valuable aid to profitable trading.
  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, a heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons – a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%.
  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use ‘market’ orders.
  9. Buy strong acting, strong background (markets) and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.

(more…)

Mera Bharat Mahan -75% rural households earned below Rs 5000

  
Analysis, Education
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The highest earning member in about three-fourths of all rural households in the country made less than Rs 5,000 per month, according to the Socio Economic and Caste Census (SECC) 2011 released today.

As per the Census data, there were 13.34 crore or 74.49 per cent households where “monthly income of highest earning household member” was below Rs 5,000 a month.

There were only 1.48 crore or 8.29 per cent of rural households where the monthly income of such member was Rs 10,000 or more.

Further, the number of rural households with a salaried job was only 9.68 per cent.

Of these, 5.02 per cent were in government jobs, 1.12 per cent were employed in public sector and the remaining 3.58 per cent in private sector, the data said.

The Census was carried out in all the 640 districts of the country using 6.4 lakh electronic hand-held devices, the government said while releasing the socio-economic data for rural India. (more…)

Physics To Help Deal With Market Risks

  
  Education
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READANDLEARNMisako Takayasu, a Tokyo Institute of Technology associate professor, spoke with The Nikkei about how “big data” will be used in the future to help market players manage risks based on principles of physics.

Excerpts from the interview follow.

Q: How do you use big data in your research?

A: Big data has allowed us to record human behavior and analyze it mathematically. Broader economic or social phenomena can be observed more clearly (in this way), like particles in physics.

As more and more trading data is accumulated, it is becoming increasingly possible to analyze and predict fluctuations using methods common in physics. The exponential growth of computer calculation speeds has also helped the process.

Q: What can you deduct from market data using these tools?

A: Data on ticks — the smallest increment of movement in the price of a security — can be used to gauge investor sentiment and how volatility is triggered. Market swings cannot be explained by a simple random-walk theory.

Markets become more stable when the number of contrarian investors increases. Conversely, they become unstable when more and more investors follow a market trend.

If market-followers dominate a market as it continues to climb, it will crash in the end. We may be able to explain the dynamics of a bubble with big data.

Q: What are the possible applications of big data in the market? (more…)

Why it is so easy to blame others for your losses.

  
  Education
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When things don’t go your way in the markets, you can do one of two things:

1) assign blame to a plethora of different parties, entities, conspirators and evil factors or
2) try to figure out what you could have done better or where you might have strayed

#1 is the easy and natural thing to do: it’s hard to admit we screwed up, but it’s easy to blame:

– short sellers

– market maker manipulation

– FIIs

– The RBI

– Centre Govt

– fake government statistics

– Algo Trading

– bad data from some internet finance site

 

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