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Honeymoons don't last forever

  
Analysis, Education
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A love affair should always be a honeymoon. And the only way to make sure of that is to keep changing the man; for the same man can never keep it up.

GEORGE BERNARD SHAW, Too True to Be Good

I had written ,Honeymoon is over for this stock.

-Just see it had crashed from 410 level to 320 in just 19 days.

Now ,This is the way to trade in Future Segment and not for Rs.1 or 2 !!

Yes ,Just 4 days back ..Boldly written that Honeymoon for stock is over.

-Yes ,On Monday written to Sell.And all our Subscribers were short.

Just see it crashed from 551 to 479 level in just 3 sessions.

You all enjoyed rally in or not.

In just 4 sessions :Spurted from 522 to 570 level.

                                                

-In Last two sessions ,As expected and was on Wednesday.Just see both stocks were on Fire.

Now ,Just think it over is it a Magic ,Miracle or Power of chart ?

Updated at 2:50/14th May/Baroda

Excerpt from Winning Methods of the Market Wizards

  
  Education
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Chapter 2: Hard Work

I am sure that the theme of this chapter comes as no surprise to you. We all know, (or at least most of us do) that to get anywhere in this life, no matter what your field may be, it is going to require some hard work along the way. There can’t be a harvest if you haven’t worked in the fields. And no where is this concept of hard work more evident than in the professional traders I have come to know over the years.

What is striking to me about this group of super-traders, the Market Wizards, is how almost every single one of them is a genuine workaholic. For these people, the level of commitment and dedication to trading is absolutely amazing, and it has engendered in them a performance level so intense and so consistent, it almost boggles the mind. When you look at these individuals, you find the kind of hard work that is almost inconceivable for most people to maintain even for one day, never mind as a lifestyle. But it is this difference in personality and commitment that makes the Market Wizards who they are, and accounts for much of their high levels of achievement.

In order for you to get a real sense of the kind of hard work we are talking about here, I think I should describe for you a couple of individuals and how they work. This will give you a good idea as to how intensely passionate they are about their pursuits.

 

David Shaw

David is a private, almost secretive individual, who has been running a very successful hedge fund for many years now. Basically, his fund is a very sophisticated form of arbitrage. Over the years, it has posted excellent results. (more…)

A Winning Trading Method is Really All About this…..

  
  Education
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eagle-newSuccessful trading is the attempt to be on the right side of the flow of capital. Each change in price happens with a new agreement between the current buyer and seller. Buyers and sellers are always equal for a transaction to take place, the cause of movement is determined by whether the buyers want in more than the sellers want out. Prices moves when capital flows into and out of a market, and inflow pushes up prices because demand becomes more than supply, price discovery happens to find out what sellers are willing to take to sell their position.

Many crazy over bought or over sold trends occur because one side has little pressure on it, position holders, shorts, or buyers sit tight as a trend accelerates. Equity markets rise when new money has to enter to be put to work but there is little interest at selling due to position holders sitting on winning positions.

Price resistance on a chart is caused by simply being the place that current holders are taking their profits. Price support happens at the price that people on the sidelines are ready to get back in at. These are simply spots where capital flows in and out. (more…)

5 Emotional Stages of a Loss

  
  Education
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Stage 1: Denial
This is when you have the first sign of a loss. However, you justify this loss. You deny it’s true form and decide that it could be a winner…but you just have to “wait it out.” “Afterall, I bought a lot of time on my option.”
Stage 2: Anger
The loss judt got worse. Now you look to place blame. Freakin’ blog! I hate the marketcast anyway!!! Why didn’t I do my own analysis????

Stage 3: Bargaining
If somehow this stock can move in your favor, you promise you won’t do it again. Or even worse, you start to think of ways to salvage. Desperation sets in.
Stage 4: Depression
It couldn’t get worse huh? WRONG! Now this makes a huge mark on your account, your spouse is going to kill you, it is going to take forever to make it back, and you start to panic.
Stage 5: Acceptance
Alright, I will take the loss.

Being prepared

  
  Education
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Make a list of everything that can go wrong and determine how you will respond to that situation. That will be the key to your success – knowing how to respond to the unexpected.”

Ask 3 essential questions:

1. Why am I taking this particular trade? ( is it part of carefully prepared plan, or is it an emotional reaction; what is the catalyst behind the move and does it have the potential to sent the stock’s price higher; are there other better trading alternatives for my money)

2. What if a am wrong? (figure out where and when I will exit, before I initiate the trade; where is my stop loss and does it makes sense to be put there; how much am I risking? How am I going to protect my capital against “unexpected” gaps)

3. What if I am right? (how am I going to protect my profits; where I would exit and why)

Remember that good trading is all about managing risk. If you are entering a position without knowing where you are getting out when you’re wrong, then you’re sunk before you begin.

Cut your losses short, no questions asked

  
  Education
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The majority of unskilled investors stubbornly hold onto their losses when the losses are small and reasonable. They could get out cheaply, but being emotionally involved and human, they keep waiting and hoping until their loss gets much bigger and costs them dearly.”

William O’Neil

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”

Victor Sperandeo

Some people say, “I can’t sell that stock because I’d be taking a loss.” If the stock is below the price you paid for it, selling doesn’t give you a loss; you already have it.

William O’Neil

When I became a winner I went from ‘I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong’ to ‘I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade.’”

Marty Schwartz

4 Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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1. Average Winners Not Losers.  It is not “don’t frown, average down”; it is applying the discipline to cut losers short and adding to winners that separates the successful from the unsuccessful.  If you have a winning stock then add to it.  If you have a losing stock then get rid of it. 

2.  Never Let a Winner Turn Into A Loser.  Greed is the cause of this mistake.  Let the market tell you when to exit a trade, not whether you have a profit or not.  “If your trade is acting well, as defined by key indicators, and the market activity is supporting your position, stay in.  If not, its go time!” Do not let a good profit vanish into thin air because you want more than the market is willing to give.

3. Never Mix Disciplines.  If you day trade then day trade and do not let a day trade turn into a swing trade.  If you swing trade do not let your swing trade turn into an investment. Follow the rules based on the discipline of your time frame.

4.  Never Try To Trade Back A loser.  In other words, each trade is a new one and should not be used to win back money lost in the last trade.  Always trade in the present not in the past where too many emotional and psychology factors can affect the current trade.  Revenge does not pay in or out of the market. 

Letting Winners Turn in to Losers

  
  Education
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Trading problem that I want to focus on is allowing winning trades to turn in to losers. Many of us have probably had a time when a trade was making big loot, and we started to count the profits like they were ours before we exited the trade. When the stock started to lose the ground it had gained, we avoided selling because we had built up an emotional attachment to the paper profits we had seen. Instead of selling the stock to lock in some gain, we opted to hold out for the stock to go back to where it used to be, promising to sell when it came back to the point where we felt good about the trade. The stock drifts lower, and eventually the gain turns in to a loss. We ultimately sell it at the bottom, swearing never to do it again. But without some reprogramming, we probably will.

The Solution

Like Kenny Rogers used to sing, “Don’t count your money, when you are sitting at the table, there will be time enough for counting, when the dealing’s done.” Do not calculate your profits before you lock them in. Avoiding the profit watch will help you avoid an emotional attachment to the paper profits, giving you greater clarity to take the exit door when the market tells you it is time to do so.

I hope this outline of mental problems and some solutions helps you become a better trader. The difference between those who succeed in trading and those who fail is not the system they play, but how well they play it. Your mind is a powerful thing, don’t let it beat you in the market.

Discipline

  
  Education
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Learning to accept losses as part of the game and cutting them short is the single most important step towards becoming consistently profitable. It sounds simple, but in reality is extremely difficult for everybody. Why? Because we’ve been taught that giving up is for losers and we should fight till last breath. I certainly agree that you should not give up quickly, but only if you can influence the end result. Let me be clear, the stock doesn’t know that you own it and it doesn’t care that you cannot afford to lose the money. The market will strip your last cloth if you don’t know how to manage risk. You have to understand and accept your power. You cannot move the market. You cannot tell him where to go and how fast. This is why so many people, who are successful as entrepreneurs and engineers, have troubles breaking even in the capital markets. It takes a special kind of person. Someone, who can forget his ego and concentrate on what actually works. Very few people are able to reach that level and to distinguish their trading life from their personal life.

Trading or investing is a skill that can be learned. There are two ways to learn a new skill in general. Through the school of hard knocks and through the mentorship of others that have the gift of teaching. To become a successful trader, you need to somehow implement both approaches. Nothing can replace personal experience. You can hire the best mentors in the world to teach you and purchase the most expensive equipment and trading software, but this is not going to help you to build a new skill. Skill building is subdued to eternal physical laws. There are a hundred billion neurons in your brain. For every skill that you possess (speaking a language or driving a car), there is a certain combination of connections between some of your neurons. To build a new skill, you need to build a new net of connections. This is why every beginning is hard, this is why big changes do not happen overnight. You have to establish new connections, which takes hard work via repetition and visualization. (more…)

Trading: The Difference Between Playing Offense & Defense

  
  Education
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The sooner traders learn to carefully manage risk the better off they will be. So many new traders come in with only the thoughts of profits dancing in their heads. This is equivalent to a football team only focusing on scoring points and not planning their defense.In trading you must play both sides of the ball. You have to be able to score points against the market and not allow the market to score back those points on you.

Your entries are your offense and your exits are your defense.

Letting a winner run is your offense, cutting your loser short is your defense.

Your automatic buy stop is your offense and your automatic stop loss is your defense.

Buying a monster stock is an offensive move, planning on how you will exit with your profits is your defensive move.

Identifying a trend is your offensive play creating a trading plan on how to trade it is your defensive play.

Your choice on what to trade is playing offense, choosing your position size is playing defense.

Your watch list is playing offense choosing how much capital to risk on any one trade is playing defense.

In trading your wins are not permanent and your profits can be taken back, when you score you have to next ensure that you are not scored on. The goal of keeping your profits has to be far above the desire for making quick money with big risk.

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