Archives of “slump” tag

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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.85% at 23,319.87

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Asian equities slump amid some caution in the risk mood

Nikkei 13-11

Japanese stocks are lower as tariffs continue to be a niggling issue in US-China trade talks. We had Trump threaten more tariffs – should talks not go well – in his speech before a WSJ report noted that both sides are still struggling to find common ground on the matter.

Meanwhile, the civil unrest in Hong Kong is continuing to affect the risk mood in the region as well, with the city continuing to descend into total chaos. The Hang Seng is down by 2.2% on the day as it sinks to session lows at the moment.
US futures are also a tad softer and that is keeping risk trades on edge as we begin the session. The franc is among the better performers with USD/CHF approaching 0.9900 though the yen has given up some of its earlier gains with USD/JPY still around 109.00.

Look Inside Yourself

  
  Education
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One trader wrote in that he was in a slump and wondered if he should switch markets or find another indicator.

Do you ever find that you also want to blame something outside yourself?

One of my favorites used to be blaming ‘the system’ – the system is rigged against me: the brokers are the only ones getting rich, robbing me on these bid/asked spreads, hunting all my stops, etc.

When you blame an external situation, you are giving up control, and instead letting yourself be controlled by outside events. This converts you from a proactive trader into a reactive trader. Or a winner into a whiner.

If you are reacting after the fact in the markets, you are then letting your emotions start to control you, instead of planning how you will react to any set of circumstances.

You know how letting emotions control you turns out in the markets. You go broke.

You must believe that you control your own destiny. If you are not getting the results you expect of yourself, look inside yourself.

Start analyzing your actions and behavior. Are you hanging on to losses too long? Are you cutting profits too soon? Are you having trouble pulling the trigger only to watch in frustration as your trade wins without you?

These and other frustrations should clue you in that you need to fix some element of your trading plan. Evaluate your present situation, and if it needs to change, take decisive action and change it.

Hendry takes a big bet on China crash

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Hugh Hendry, the voluble hedge fund manager well known for his bearish but highly successful calls on the global economy over the past two years, has taken a big position that is designed to profit from a crash in China.

Mr Hendry’s London-based Eclectica Asset Management has constructed a “short credit” portfolio that stands to make gains of 250 per cent for his flagship fund in the event of a slump in China’s growth.

Eclectica is also poised to launch a standalone fund to benefit from the strategy next month, the Financial Times has learned.

The new fund will stand to deliver even larger gains than those for the main fund if successful.

“The investment team and I have carefully constructed a short credit portfolio made up of over 20 single-name industrial, cyclical businesses that have the dubious distinction of suffering from gigantic financial leverage and Asian/commodity overdependence,” Mr Hendry wrote to investors in his monthly letter this week. (more…)

Confidence

  
  Education
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“Success is not to be pursued; it is to be attracted by the person you become.”

Confidence-Posters

 Trading success requires confidence. But confidence does not just come from knowing how to identify and act on good trading opportunities. It also comes from learning how to deal with adversity. It comes from facing a slump and working through the challenge to overcome it.

 So, when you find yourself in a slump, embrace the opportunity. This is your chance for personal growth. It’s an opportunity to become a better trader. It’s an opportunity to establish a winning feeling, not a false one based on hope, but one with substance in which you know that whatever comes in the future, you’re ready for it and you can deal with it.

 Enjoy the challenge.

The coming economic crisis in China

  
Education, Life
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By Jim Jubak

Jim JubakI think investors are worried about the wrong kind of crisis in China.

Worry seems to focus on the possibility of an asset bubble and the chance that it will burst sometime in the next two to three months.

I’m more concerned about a slide into a crisis that will be an extension of the Great Recession. That slide could begin, I estimate, sometime in the next 12 to 18 months.

I understand the worry about the possibility of an asset bubble in China. After all, we’ve just been through two horrible asset bubbles — and busts — in the U.S. and global financial markets. And a Chinese bubble is a distinct possibility, one that should certainly figure into your investing strategy.

But China’s economy and political system are so different from ours in the U.S. and those in the rest of the developed world — and its relationship to the global financial market so unique — that I don’t think we’re headed toward any kind of replay of March 2000 or October 2007.

A bigger worry is a long-term slide into a lower-growth or no-growth world in which nations strive to beggar their neighbors and all portfolios slump. As crises go, it’s very different but ultimately just as painful for investors as the asset bubbles that draw all our attention now.

To paraphrase Leo Tolstoy in “Anna Karenina“: Happy bull markets are all alike; every unhappy bear market is unhappy in its own way.

Overcome Indecisive Trading- Take 5 Steps

  
  Education
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Admit it. Face up to what it is. Call it a slump, call it shattered confidence, call it a big scary market monster. Whatever “it” is, you have to get it on the table so you can deal with it.

Seek help. Maybe you shouldn’t go it alone. Without some accountability, it’s easy to relapse. Find a mentor or some coaching to get you back on track, and add some skills to your repertoire. The fact of the matter is that left to your own abilities as they currently stand, you may very well be facing a similar situation again.

Take inventory. Take an inventory of what’s left of your capital, both in terms of cash and confidence. It may be that you simply don’t have enough left to consider a comeback right away, so perhaps you incubate for a while and prepare in other ways for your eventual return. Or perhaps you assess your situation and realize you have more than enough to start the process.

Get uncomfortably familiar with the cause. What was it that put you in need of recovery to begin with? Overconfidence? Lack of respect for the market? A series of small mistakes which compounded your problems? Understanding the root cause of your wounds, even if painful, will help you prevent it from happening again in the future. After all, you’ve already paid the tuition, you might as well get the lesson.

Get back in the saddle. The last step in the sequence is to return to trading and begin rebuilding. Start thinking about what that’s going to look like for you and how you’ll avoid the same pitfalls which got you this time around. Visualize yourself back in the routine again, making plays, staying disciplined, and having success.

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