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Nicolas Darvas

Great links with Nicolas Darvas interviews

“Since he has to do trading from wherever he is dancing he ignores tips, financial stories and brokers’ letters, and has never been in a broker’s office. Basically, his approach is that of a chartist: he watches price and volume … When a stock makes a good advance on strong volume, he begins watching it, buys when he feels that informed buyers are getting in. For example, when he was playing in Calcutta, he noticed E. L. Bruce moving up in the stock tables. Suddenly, on 35,000 shares it moved from 16 to 50. He bought in at 51, though he knew nothing about the company, and ‘I didn’t care what they made.’ (They make hardwood flooring.) He sold out at 171 six weeks later.

Darvas places his buy orders for levels that he considers breakout points on the upside. At the same time, he places a stop-loss sell order just below his buy order, so that if the stock does not move straight up after he buys, he will be sold out and his loss cut. ‘I have no ego in the stock market,’ he says. ‘If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast.’ Darvas thinks his system is the height of conservatism … If he has a big profit in a stock, he puts the stop-loss order just below the level at which a sliding stock should meet support. He bought Universal Controls at 18, sold it at 83 on the way down after it had hit 102.

Darvas trained for the market just as methodically as he had studied his dancing, read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spent eight hours a day until saturated. Two of the books he rereads almost every week: Humphrey Neill’s Tape Reading and Market Tactics and G. M. Loeb’s The Battle for Investment Survival. He still spends about two hours a day on his stock tables.”

That line, “[He] buys when he feels that informed buyers are getting in,” made me chuckle. It should read “He buys when he suspects that uninformed fools are piling in.”

An Interview With Nicolas Darvas in 1974:

Don’t forget I too went through a period of learning from 1953 to 1958 where I lost a substantial amount of capital before I worked out what worked and then was lucky enough to time it in the 1958-1960 bull market.”


The Woman Who Made It on Wall Street

Sallie

Women are the foot soldiers of the business world, but they are rarely the generals. So it’s worth asking why no female has been as successful in scaling Wall Street as Sallie Krawcheck, Bank of America’s (BAC) wealth management chief. While other women struggle to avoid the “glass cliff,” she barely walks into a bank before she is groomed as a future CEO.

Krawcheck is best known for the kind of media adoration you can’t buy—for instance, that famous cover story from Fortune magazine, “In Search of the Last Honest Analyst.” But her rise began well before—and was speedy. In six years Krawcheck went from junior banker at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette to chief executive of research firm Alliance Bernstein. She clocked just two years at Citigroup (C) before becoming CFO in 2004. Nine months after a falling-out with Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit in 2008, she was back in the game with a better deal: Bank of America wooed Krawcheck, just 45, to run its mammoth brokerage. And within six weeks on the job, she was named as a possible successor for its departing CEO. But as successful as she has been in winning over the media, interviews with former colleagues show Krawcheck has been just as effective in winning over her peers, too. Her rise has not been flawless and is still not assured after her troubled turn as Citi CFO. But it is very real.

Read More …Click here

The Heart and Mind of Trading

Your heart has a mind, and your mind has a heart. In trading we need to bring heart and mind together. We need to feel intelligently and think with informed emotion.  The mind has intellectual emotion and the heart has emotional intellect.

It has been proven through heart transplants that the heart really does have a mind. Heart transplant recipients take on many characteristics, connections, habits, and hobbies of their donors. One woman who had never cared about dancing began to take ballroom dance lessons six weeks after her transplant. She became fascinated with ballroom dancing and became quite good at it. It turned out the donor of her heart had been a ballroom dancer. One child who had received the heart of another child upon seeing the dead child’s mother cried out, “Mommy, I’ve missed you!” And there are many other such reported instances.

It could even be assumed for the sake of this column, that the entire body, cell structure, and so forth are informed by both mind and heart. This is a column about trading, so let’s look at how mind and heart impact trading. We can start with the metaphors of mind and heart.

What is the heart of your trading? Is it analysis? Is it intuition?  Is it thought corrected by feeling or feeling balanced by analysis? Is it an outside system created by you or someone else that you employ with emotional or thoughtful action?

Do you trade with heart?  Do you put your whole self into it? And does that work for you?

Do you trade with an intellectual detachment? And does that support your chosen results?

What would happen if you brought the two together? What if you traded committed to your heart’s desire but also retained an intellectual remove from immediate results?  What if you committed yourself to replicating a verified and trusted method in the market and retained an optimistic view of the final results even while you observed with curiosity the current unfolding of the market?

We need balance in life and in trading. By bringing heart and mind and even body into the trading, we can seek to bring all of ourselves into the equation. We can do it mindfully with heart and clear purpose.

$673 Billion In Commercial Paper Maturing Through July 16 As CP Rates Creep Higher

As an increasing number of analysts evaluate the impact of Europe’s rolling defaults and failed auctions on Europe’s liquidity and particularly its shadow liquidity system, best seen in rising European Commercial Paper rates, is it about time to take a look at our own back yard. According to the Federal Reserve there is $673 billion in Commercial Paper maturing in the next 6 weeks alone, of which the bulk, Non-ABL Tier 1 CP amounts to $328 billion, ABL CP totals $292 billion, and Non-ABL Tier 2 CP totals $34 billion. What is concerning is that just like in Europe, rates here in the US for the various tranches of Commercial Paper have started rising. And as this is arguably one of the biggest components of the US shadow liquidity system, it bears close watching, especially if spreads continue leaking wider as they have recently. One thing to keep in mind: the Fed’ CPFF emergency facility has now been retired, and any hitch in the CP market will necessitate another brand new involvement in broad liquidity provisioning by the Fed. Then again, just as in the Central Bank liquidity swap case, which was reactivated on a moment’s notice, we don’t see any problem with the Fed announcing the CPFF program going live with no notice.

The chart below shows a maturity distribution of various CP tranches over the next six weeks.

And the recent rates on the three key CP tranches can be seen in the chart below. All three are trading at their 2010 wide levels.

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