Don’t look for easy trades and setups at all times. Test yourself by working hard trades and difficult markets in order to test and improve your skills. For example, if you’re uncomfortable with trading options, spend a month just trading options. If you’re uncomfortable with shorting stocks, spend a month shorting stocks. We only get better if we constantly test what we think is most difficult.
Archives of “shorting stocks” tag
rssRules for Shorting
Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list. (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)
Rules for Shorting
When it comes to shorting, many people are in the dark. It is more challenging to be short, subject to squeezes; the return max out at 100% — versus unlimited upside for longs.
Over the years, I have put together some rules for shorting. These are pretty broad and general, but they have kept me out of trouble when
Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list. (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)
That is my short shorting list . . .
The Greatest Trader Who Ever Lived: Jesse Livermore?
Seventy one years ago, on Thursday, November 28, 1940, Jesse Lauriston Livermore, entered the Sherry Netherland Hotel where he took a seat near the bar and enjoyed a couple of old-fashioned. After an hour Jesse Livermore got up and went in the cloakroom, seated himself on a stool, and then shot himself in the head with a .32 Colt automatic. How could the man who is still regarded by many as the greatest trader who ever lived go out this way by taking his own life? It just doesn’t match the rest of his life.
In his youth Jesse was know as the “Boy Plunger” because he looked younger than his years and he would take big positions when he traded against the bucket shops of his day. The bucket shops let traders bet on a stock price, but no trade was executed, the house covered if you were right. How good was he? He was banned from the bucket shops one by one, it was like getting kicked out of a casino because you beat the house so badly with outsized gains. He went on to trade in stocks and commodities and did very well becoming a millionaire many times. Unfortunately he also went bust many times. He made his biggest money in the market crashes of 1907 and 1929, it is said that J.P. Morgan himself sent word asking for Jesse to please quit shorting stocks. In 1929 the day of one of the biggest market meltdowns he returned home and his wife was scared that he had lost everything, he surprised her by making the biggest money of his trading career. He ended up with the nickname “The Great Bear of Wall Street” because of his shorting activity.
Here are some of his most insightful quotes from his book “How to Trade in Stocks”
“All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope – that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis”
“Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance – follow the trend – the trend is your friend”
“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because hu (more…)
Book Review :Elder, The New Sell & Sell Short
Most traders have read Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living, originally published in 1993. Elder has, of course, written other popular books such as Come into My Trading Room (2002) and Entries and Exits (2006). His latest work, The New Sell & Sell Short: How to Take Profits, Cut Losses, and Benefit from Price Declines (Wiley, 2011) is an expanded second edition of his 2008 book. It comes with a built-in study guide: three sets of questions and answers. Although it is a paperback, the charts and graphs are printed in color and the stock is of high quality.
The first part of the book covers Elder’s signature contributions to the trading literature: psychology, risk management, and record-keeping. It is brief because we’ve been there before, but Elder does describe some new ways to keep records—an ongoing project because he believes that “the single most important factor in your success or failure is the quality of your records.” (p. 341)
Part two tackles the all-important question of how to exit a (long) trade. Elder offers three alternative scenarios: sell at a target above the market, be prepared to sell below the market using a protective stop, and “sell before the stock hits either a target or a stop—because market conditions have changed and you no longer want to hold it.” (p. 59)
Elder then moves on to shorting stocks, futures, and forex; he also has a section on writing options. Finally, he points out some lessons of the 2007-2009 bear market. (more…)