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OPEC Barkindo: Could see sharp supply fall in 2020 from US shale output

  
Analysis, Crude
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OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo

OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo is on the news wires:
  • likely C# downward revisions of supply going into 2020 especially from United States shale output
  • fundamentally global economy range strong
  • there is no sign of global economic recession
  • Demand numbers for 2020 has potential for an upside swing
  • confident OPEC+ members will continue with their agreement in 2020
  • some US oil companies see shale output growth in 2020 only up by around 300,000-400,000 BPD. That it is not as high as OPEC optimistic estimates
  • Saudi authorities have reassured US that Aramco IPO won’t affect kingdom’s role within OPEC as the biggest producer
  • no one in OPEC+ wants to return to where we came from during oil prices downturn
  • The Aramco IPO won’t affect Saudi Arabia’s participation in supply adjustments to ensure oil market stability

Ifo economist says that German economy faces a turbulent time ahead

  
  Analysis
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Comments by Ifo economist, Klaus Wohlrabe, following the data earlier

Germany
  • Sees a slightly positive growth rate in 2H 2019 for Germany
  • But notes that recession is spreading in all important sectors in German economy
  • Says risk of disorderly Brexit has increased
  • Doesn’t believe that the ECB will loosen policy today
The early signs for Q3 haven’t been encouraging for Germany with the manufacturing sector in freefall as the recession in that area deepens. As that continues, the risk of spillover to the services sector will intensify and that won’t bode well for the economic outlook.
As for his comment on the ECB, I’m also leaning more towards that as the governing council may likely see fit to only change its forward guidance as they will only release their latest staff projections in September. That said, they will be skating on very, very thin ice in the mean time in managing the euro and inflation expectations.

Powell does not comment on monetary policy or the economy in opening remarks

  
  Analysis
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Gives opening remarks at Boston Fed conference

  • stress tests most evolved to avoid complacency
Chair Powell’s main event(s) this week will be on Capitol Hill on both Wednesday and Thursday as he testifies to US lawmakers.  That is where the rubber will meet the road.
Later today, the Fed’s
  • Bostic is due to deliver opening remarks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Meeting, in St. Louis at 10:10 AM ET/1410 GMT
  • Quarles speaks on stress tests in Boston (not sure can expect much there).   That starts at 2 PM ET/1800 GMT
  • Fed’s Bostic will be speaking at Washington University in St. Louis at 2:20 PM ET/1820 GMT. He will be do an “armchair chat” and not speak from text.
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