Archives of “price indices” tag

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Japan GDP for Q1, preliminary: GDP -0.9% sa q/q (vs. expected -1.1%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Japanese economic growth in the January to March quarter of 2020 – this the preliminary release

GDP -0.9% sa q/q
  • expected -1.1%, prior -1.8%

GDP -3.4% annualised sa q/q

  • expected -4.5%, prior -7.1%
GDP -0.8% nominal q/q
  • expected -1.3%, prior -1.5%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) %

  • expected 0.7%, prior 1.2%

Private consumption -0.7%

  • expected -1.6% q/q, prior -2.8%

Business spending -0.5% (capex)

  • expected -1.5%, prior -4.6%
More:
  • 2 consecutive quarters of contraction for the Japanese economy, the economy moves into recession for the first time since H2 of 2015
  • Q1 exports had their biggest drop q/q since the 2nd quarter of 2011, down 6%
January and February were stable to slowly picking up for Japan but the outbreak in  March hit economic growth. The April to June quarter is likely to be even worse, with a more prolonged impact. Restrictions were imposed by the April 7 national emergency declaration shutting many restaurants, large retail outlets, hotels and more. The restrictions were partially lifted on May 14, but are still in place for Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan.
Yen doing little.

Japan Unemployment rate for December: 2.2% (expected 2.3%)

  
  Analysis
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The Tokyo area CPI is out at the same time, on a separate post

Japan Jobless rate for December 2.2%

  • expected 2.3%, prior 2.2%

Job to applicant ratio for December 1.57

  • expected 1.57, prior 1.57
Japan economy … 99 problems but unemployment ain’t one.

Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis
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UK December CPI data in focus today

Good day, everyone! Hope you’re all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. Markets are keeping more calm after a minor hiccup yesterday over tariff headlines but the main focus remains on the US-China trade deal signing later today.

Major currencies remain little changed thus far as the more steady tones are giving little direction for traders to work with in general. Looking ahead, we’ll have a couple of data points to move things along with the big one being UK inflation data.

0745 GMT – France December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. As this is the final release, it shouldn’t have much of an impact as it should reaffirm a slight rebound in price pressures last month.
0800 GMT – Spain December final CPI figures
The preliminary release can be found here. Similar to the French release, it should just reaffirm a slight rebound in inflation across the region last month.
0930 GMT – UK December CPI figures
0930 GMT – UK December PPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Price pressures in the UK is expected to keep more steady last month, but still below the desired 2% level. I reckon barring any significant drop-off in inflation, the BOE could lean towards staying pat in January but markets may still allude to this as being a reason to cut as well. In my view, post-election data matters more for the BOE so more steady price pressures (for now) should keep the finger off the trigger.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November industrial production
Prior release can be found here. The bounce in German industrial production for November should help give a slight nudge higher in the release here today but overall factory activity remains rather subdued in the euro area towards the end of 2019. A minor data point.
1000 GMT – Eurozone November trade balance data
Prior release can be found here. A general indication of trade conditions in the euro area economy, which is still a bit shaky in general amid slower global activity.
1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage approvals w.e. 10 January
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. Not the biggest of data points, but a general indicator of the housing sector sentiment.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!

Japan headline inflation data for October misses, core-core beats

  
Analysis, Economy
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The headlines National CPI comes in at 0.2% y/y, a “miss” on estimates.

  • expected 0.3%, prior was 0.2%
National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food is 04% y/y
  • expected 0.4%, prior was 0.3%
National CPI excluding Food, Energy is 0.7% y/y a “beat” on estimates
  • expected 0.6 %, prior was 0.5%
I generally do not like describing CPI data in terms of misses and beats but made an ex[pcetion today.
The ‘core-core’ referred to is CPI excluding Food & Energy, this is the closest measure to what is termed ‘core’ CPI in the US. As you can see, slightly above the median consensus. While well short of the 2% BOJ target, a tiny bit of good news for the Bank.
Yen doing pretty much nothing on the data release. As is usual.

European mid-morning: Currencies remain little changed but big week lies ahead

  
  Analysis
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Major currencies are <0.1% changed against the dollar so far today

EOD 28-10

The pound is arguably the only active mover as cable rose to a high of 1.2859 earlier in the session before settling back to near flat levels currently around 1.2820-30 levels.
Other major currencies are holding in narrow ranges against the dollar with little conviction to break stride so far today.
The risk mood is a bit mixed overall with European equities looking indecisive but bond yields are marked higher amid the fact that a Brexit extension was granted, with the move higher coming after France moved on their stance from last week.
Despite the slower start to currencies this week, fret not because it is going to be a crucial week ahead and here are some of the highlights to look forward to:
Monday, 28 October (still to come)
– UK parliamentary vote on Johnson’s election motion
Wednesday, 30 October
– Australia Q3 CPI data
– France Q3 preliminary GDP data
– US October ADP employment change
– US Q3 advanced GDP data
– Bank of Canada October monetary policy meeting
– FOMC October monetary policy meeting
Thursday, 31 October
– New Zealand October ANZ business confidence
– China October manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMI
– BOJ October monetary policy meeting
– Eurozone October preliminary CPI data
– Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP data
– Canada August monthly GDP data
– US September PCE deflator data
Friday, 1 November
– China October Caixin manufacturing PMI
– US October non-farm payrolls, labour market report

Japan – National CPI for March: 1.6% y/y (vs. 1.6% expected) & the rest of this data

  
Analysis, Education
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Japan inflation data:

National CPI y/y for March,  1.6%

  • expected 1.6%, prior was 1.5%

National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for March,  1.3%

  • expected 1.4%, prior was 1.3%

National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for March,  0.7%

  • expected 0.7%, prior was 0.8%

Tokyo CPI y/y for April,  2.9%

  • expected 3.0%, prior was 1.3% (Note: the ‘expected’ is much higher than the prior due to the introduction of the higher sales tax rate on April 1 …. note we get Tokyo inflation figures for April, with national figures are for March)

Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for April,  2.7% (this is a 22-year high … but, of course, skewed by the sales tax hike)

  • expected 2.8%, prior was 1.0% (ditto) (more…)

Ross and Soros twin towers the market

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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dynamite1Wilbur Ross and George Soros are out today calling for crash of commercial real estate.Read more here:

 

Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”

“All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate — the return that investors are demanding to buy a property — are going up.” (more…)

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